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Oklahoma was a lock yesterday, but Texas let me down. I refuse to believe Notre Dame is THAT good, but they certainly have heated up at the right time, and in this format that’s the name of the game. The other four teams matchup up Saturday for the second day of the College World Series. Where is the value?
Quick piece of advice for any type of bets for College Baseball, SHOP AROUND. A lot of different books are hanging mispriced numbers, so you can take advantage of them.
*Each play will be labeled (1 through number “X”) to determine how I rank my plays on a daily basis.
Auburn Tigers (+106) @ Ole Miss Rebels (-135) | Over/Under 10 (1)
The more I see Ole Miss, the more aggravated I get knowing how bad Miami face-planted in the Regionals. The Canes easily would be a money play, but instead the Rebels drew the easiest schedule I have ever seen. They literally could not have hand picked an easier route to Omaha. Nonetheless, here we go. They draw fellow SEC savant in the Auburn Tigers. We are likely to see Dylan Delucia face off against Joe Gonzalez. Who has the edge?
Back when the Rebs were the No. 1 team in the country in mid-March, they threw Auburn a beating, winning the series and outscoring them 33-27. That series total score was not indicative of the outcome as the Tigers put up 19 in one game to make it look close. At that point in the season, Delucia was a reliever/mid-week starter as opposed to the ace he is now. From mid-April to mid-May, Delucia was great, posting four quality starts out of five tries. Then he fell off the wagon a bit against TAMU and Vandy before he regained his composure at the right time. With back-to-back good outings against Arizona and Southern Miss, he is poised to shove against a Tigers offense that is reliant on one player, Sonny DiChiara. The glaring advantage for the Rebs is their lineup led by the captain, Tim Elko (.302 average, 22 bops). While I am not discounting Auburn, it just seems like Ole Miss has a clear edge in this game. The Rebels have yet to lose in the tournament.
Burn baby, burn. Gonzalez has been butter with three consecutive strong outings against Kentucky, Florida State and Oregon State allowing only five earned runs over 16 innings. Before he fell off a bit against the Beavers last week, he was dotting them prior to a messy fourth and fifth inning. If “Gotta Go” Joe holds Ole Miss to three runs or less over six innings, the Tigers will absolutely have a chance to swipe this pivotal contest. As mentioned, though, their offense will need more output from everybody else not named Sonny D. If not for his two-run tater on Monday, Auburn would be sitting home. They have only scored seven runs in their last two outings, so now is not the time to go ice fishing.
I pegged this as one of my Battle of the Bets plays, and while it was better value (-125), the price now is still not bad. I would not pay more than -140 for this. There has been a ton of money coming in on the Rebs and the Under.
PREDICTION: Ole Miss ML (-135)
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Arkansas Razorbacks (-105) @ Stanford Cardinal (-115) | Over/Under 10.5 (2)
Whatta ya’ know… another team on the ol’ fade list. Arkansas is extremely annoying to me. I liked them throughout the season until they completely fell apart in the SEC Tournament, then decided to go all Secretariat on us. Their offense has played so much better, and their starting pitching has come back around. They face arguably the most talented remaining team in the Stanford Cardinal. With the pitching matchup likely to be Connor Noland and Alex Williams, will Stanford get off to a good start, or will Ark stay hot?
The Razorbacks have totally flipped a switch in the month of June. 5-1 in postseason play is damn-near perfect. They are the epitome of what happens when a team gets hot at the right time. The guy who embodies that is their ace, Connor Noland (7-5, 3.86 ERA). Noland was pretty good for most of the year, but heading into the Regionals, he had allowed five earned runs in three straight outings, which obviously was a huge cause for concern. However, he turned on a dime and delivered back-to-back big boy starts (13.2 innings, one run). With the contributions looming from this suddenly hot Arkansas lineup from players like Brady Slavens, Cayden Wallace, and Brayden Webb etc, Ark could be a tough out for the No. 2 team in the country, Stanford.
Alex Williams, the Pac-12 pitcher of the year, has been an absolute shell of himself lately, allowing 15 earned runs over his last three outings (10.2 IP). His last dominant outing was a month ago against USC where he shoved a complete game, one run gem. If Stanford wants to keep advancing, they need Williams to pitch like the ace he has been this year. With a wagon for an offense behind him, Williams just needs to pitch to contact and keep the ball low as he has yielded five tanks in this rough three-start span. The Cardinal lineup is top-10 in homers this year with 117. Led by future first-rounder Brock Jones, if Stanford comes out aggressive and swinging like they want to actually get off to a great start, we could see this lineup visit the tater factory a few times. I just have a hard time seeing Stanford lose if Williams is sharp. Obviously, it’s a big if right now, but I think it’s time to get back on track.
This is a light sprinkle for me, not a heavy play because I believe this is more of a toss-up than the first game. I feel like if one dog is going to win today it would be the Razorbacks unfortunately, so tread lightly here.
PREDICTION: Stanford ML (-115)
Enjoy the taste, kid.
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