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Decent Wednesday night. I ended up playing the O5.5 strikeouts on Shohei Ohtani lol. Talk about the easiest layup I may ever have.
As Jordan Belfort said, “Your only problem is going to be you didn’t buy more.” Well, he was right. Regardless, we have a few plays in the back pocket for a lighter Thursday slate. Better get to it.
*Each play will be labeled (1 through number “X”) to determine how I rank my plays on a daily basis.
Chicago White Sox (-140) @ Cleveland Guardians (+120) Over/Under 8 (1/2)
The back-to-back rainouts did Chicago NO FAVORS yesterday. After about 127 errors in the first game which they lost 11-1, the Sox played a cleaner game but still dropped the second game 2-1. Time to hit the reset button.
The White Sox are so much better than what they showed yesterday, regardless of who their opponent is or what pitcher they are facing. Today is exactly what they need; their ace on the bump to stop the slide. My preseason AL Cy Young pick, Dylan Cease, has been actual filth so far with a 2-0 record and 1.69 ERA and 16 K’s in 10.2 innings. The only bugaboo I suppose is working too deep into counts, which limits his innings, and on the border of walking too many batters (five thus far). Last season, Cease had mixed results in two appearances against Cleveland; one start of 5.1 shutout innings and one 3.1 IP six run outing.
While the Guardians numbers do not suggest this is a bad matchup today (fifth fewest K’s at 88) against a RHP (30 points higher in average, 100 points higher in OPS ) instead of a lefty, I believe it is simply because they have yet to face a real pitcher. Apples and oranges, but the only legit starter they have dealt with has been Carlos Rodon of the Giants, and he dotted them for seven innings with only one run and nine punchouts. Add to that the fact that outside of Game 1 yesterday, Cleveland has been held to under three runs in six of eleven games this season. Chicago is due to bounce back behind a big Dylan Cease showing.
PREDICTION: Dylan Cease OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-108) (1)
PREDICTION: White Sox F5 (-136) (2)
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Texas Rangers (+110) @ Seattle Mariners (-131) | Over/Under 8 (3)
I am not sure if I want kids or not, so in the meantime I treat the Seattle Mariners as my baby. And my baby came through last night to cover a FAT plus money runline for daddy. I mean of course they had to try and throw in a late submission for the best drama series with the late inning antics, but whatever. Ultimately, my intuition to not trust a guy named Dane proved to be world class handicapping. Love to see it.
There were a few spots immediately after the conclusion of last night’s game that hung the Mariners -1.5 RL in the +150-+160 range, but it got bet down aggressively in most spots. I am dipping my hand back into the cookie jar again with Marco Gonzales on the bump. Gonzo is coming off a gem vs. the Astros; 7 IP with only one run. Although the Rangers are significantly better against lefties thus far (on paper), it is pretty much because they roughed Hyun Jin Ryu of the Blue Jays, Austin Gomber of the Rockies, and a couple of should-be Chuck E. Cheese managers of the Angels, so let us not get ahead of ourselves. I do believe Texas has a very good lineup, but Marco, not Polo, should be able to do enough to hold them down.
Having mentioned it yesterday, I would not go as far as to say the Mariners lineup is back, but it is definitely getting there. During this string where they have won five or their last six games, Seattle has scored 33 runs. Last night, they only scored four runs, but along with bad luck like the Jesse Winker rocket triple play, they again left too many runners on base: nine and they went 2-12 with runners in scoring position. Eventually that will have to regress. Even against the lefty Taylor Hearn of the Rangers, it is time the M’s get it together. Aside from a 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS record, the Rangers have not won or covered in five straight. Let us get this sweeparoo, Seattle.
PREDICTION: Mariners RL -1.5 (+155)
Have a taste, cuz.
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