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Tuesday was a little rough but not catastrophic. Still, it’s enough to where we need a good rebound today. I’m highlighting a few hitters today for a strong Wednesday.
*Each play will be labeled (1 through number “X”) to determine how I rank my plays on a daily basis.
Yusei Kikuchi O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. New York Yankees (1)
Here we are, back to checking out one Mr. Kikuchi once again. Getting sick and tired of everything going the Yankees’ way when we’re betting against them, so maybe we can be on the right side for once. For the second time this season, the Blue Jays starter draws his AL East rival.
In his first start against NYY (and the season), YK threw 84 pitches in 3.1 innings, walked two and only had two punchouts. Although the Yanks strike out the 13th most times this season (204), their offense has been pretty hot. The issue I have with Kikuchi, as usual, is that his command seems to be off. That’s led to walks, more pitches being thrown and mistakes. For four straight outings, he has punched out less than five batters and has been hitting a brick wall mostly the second time through the order. In back-to-back outings against Houston, he had us on the ropes thinking he would push through for the fifth strikeout, but the cavalry never came.
If our guy gets in some early trouble with a rising pitch count, it could be another start if he fails to make it through four innings. We need to keep riding this Kikuchi Under. You can play this out to -140.
PREDICTION: Kikuchi UNDER 4.5K’s (-116)
Justin Verlander O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Seattle Mariners (2)
It just absolutely pains me to see my Mariners like this. They are not only 2-6 on this brutal road trip but in five of their losses, they have only combined for four runs. Absolutely pathetic. Luckily, they return home tomorrow to try and assess the damage of the last couple of weeks. For the finale, they draw Justin Verlander…or who I like to call, “The Other JV.”
I want to say I’m not surprised given the resume and talent he has, but I am a little shocked at how well Verlander has responded to not pitching in two years this quickly. Only surrendering five earned runs in 26 innings with 28 K’s, that’s a very impressive feat to this point. In JV’s second start against Seattle, he has a chance to drop the hammer on a team that couldn’t hit its way out of a wet brown paper bag. The first time around, Verlander tossed eight shutout innings with eight K’s. Now he faces a Seattle lineup that has struck out the 17th most (197) this year and has not scored a run in this series.
JV has had seven or more punchouts in all but one start and seeing how his pitch count is being extended into the 90s, I think we may see at least seven innings from him if all is going well. Seeing how he is 3-1 to the Over, I think we need to take advantage of a low K total number against a severely struggling Mariners offense.
I think realistically, it’s worth a couple of fazools to parlay the Over with Astros RL -1.5 (+115), seeing how Matt “Wild Thing” Brash is pitching for the M’s today. Brash has walked 13 batters in 17 innings and would surprise me to see him not make it past the fourth inning.
PREDICTION: Verlander OVER 6.5K’s (-106)
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San Diego Padres (-142) @ Cleveland Guardians (+120)| Over/Under 7 (3)
Welcome back to the show, Mr. Clevinger. Just back from Woodstock…kidding, Tommy John surgery, Clevinger is pitching for the first time in nearly two years against the organization that he came up with. Believe it or not (George isn’t at home), he has actually been a good pitcher in his career (44-23, 3.19 ERA, 603 K’s in 542.1 innings). Still, it’s hard to know what to expect after such a long hiatus and major injury.
Cleveland was in a major rut until they snapped out of it thanks to a three-game sweep against the A’s. The Guardians are definitely what I expected they would be, a bad team. And facing a hot San Diego team with two of their hitters tearing the cover off the ball in Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado? Could be a risky proposition. With Zach Plesac on the bump, Cleveland stands a good chance to compete in this one. Coming off a beatdown from the Angels where he surrendered six earned runs in just 3.2 innings, we should see a nice bounce back from a pitcher who has been terrific otherwise in 2022.
While San Diego has certainly taken advantage of some butter matchups this year, they are a legit team. However, they won’t win every game, and they still have some issues to work out in the back of their bullpen. My feeling is Clevinger may go four innings at most, leaving San Diego’s pitchers to be in mop-up duty. If Plesac can keep the opposition to a minimum, the Guardians have a shot to steal one at home against a much better team.
There has already been some early morning action on Cleveland, lowering the price down to +120. I definitely believe it is worth a play.
PREDICTION: Guardians ML (+120)
Have a taste, kid.
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