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A little Monday flare provided a small profit. Tuesday’s slate is showing me a ton of value across the board. I usually hate doing this, but we’re going hard today; I’m talking about a laundry list of plays. Let’s get it.
*Each play will be labeled (1 through number “X”) to determine how I rank my plays on a daily basis.
San Diego Padres (-174) @ Cincinnati Reds (+146) Over/Under 7.5 (1)
I got butterflies in my stomach when I woke up this morning and saw who has the ball for the San Diego Padres: “Sir Joey Shoves A Lot.” Joe Musgrove has been a machine so far this season with only four runs in 19 innings along with 21 K’s. If you have been watching him, then you know how good he has looked: he has kept hitters off balance and out of sync as he dazzles a good mix of fastballs and sliders.
I find it strange how a pitcher matches up against the same opponent in back-to-back starts, but here we are. In his last outing, Musgrove was great; aside from a first-inning mistake pitch to Tommy Pham, he was in cruise control until he was pulled in the seventh inning. During that series, the Friars offense outscored Cincy’s 16-3, and even though they went quiet like a church mouse against the Los Angeles Dodgers, we should see this lineup heat back up against Reiver Sanmartín, who yielded five earned runs in his prior outing against San Diego. Oh not to mention, the Padres covered all three games in that series.
Seeing how the Reds just came off an 11-game losing and coverless streak on Sunday vs. the Cardinals, I’m not ready to pencil Cincinnati back in as an ATS machine. With the way Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer have been mashing, I think San Diego could plate seven or eight runs tonight.
PREDICTION: Padres RL -1.5 (+110)
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Joe Musgrove O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Cincinnati Reds (2)
You should have seen this one coming. Musgrove has been one of the better pitchers in the league over the last couple of seasons, even if he is not discussed as one. In all three of his outings thus far, “Sir Joey Shoves A Lot” has had at least six punchouts and is coming off a seven-K performance against these same Reds.
Cincinnati has the eighth-most strikeouts in the league right now (150) and has been even worse against righties than lefties this season. I won’t bore you with the details, but rest assured, it’s bad. We can get as scientific as we want, but the fact of the matter is that Musgrove is better than the other guys. With an extending pitch count into the 90’s, we could see the Friar venture into the seventh or eight inning close to 100 pitches if he stays out of high-stress situations. This number is way too low to not take a shot on the Over. Musgrove is 3-0 on his strikeout Overs this season, so let’s make it 4-0.
I would play this out to -150.
PREDICTION: OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-134) -1.0u
Seattle Mariners (+115) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-130) | Over/Under 7 (3)
By now, you have to know the Seattle Mariners are like my baby. Even as a parent, you get mad at your kids. Not that I know how it feels as a parent, but I’ve made mine irate a lot over the years. The Mariners did me dirty last week when I dipped back into the well on their Run Line as they proceeded to blow a five-run lead and strand 12 runners on base, going 2-11 with RISP. Taking on my adopted home Tampa Bay Rays -- which I miss tremendously and have gotten major FOMO from not being there, but I digress -- I have to say I love this matchup.
Seattle has eight wins (should be nine) in their last 10 games, including a sweep of the Kansas City Royals, and have shown an offensive resurgence, scoring 45 runs in their past seven contests. While it’s a tad difficult to handicap them going against an opener and not starter for Tampa Bay’s Matt Wisler, they should keep this gravy train rolling.
The M’s get one of the hottest pitchers in MLB on the mound in Logan Gilbert. Gilbert has allowed only one earned run in 16.2 IP this season and he is just dotting right now. While the Rays offense has woken up a bit over the last two series, I still think the Mariners’ hurler can keep a lid on a lineup that has struggled mightily against RHP this year. This is a nice spot for Seattle to stay hot.
PREDICTION: Mariners ML (+115)
Carlos Rodon O/U 8.5 Strikeouts vs. LA Angels (4)
Remember how I just said Logan Gilbert is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball? Well, Rodon is even hotter; he’s fire squad right now: 17 innings, eight hits, two earned runs with 29 punchouts. Absolute filth.
For his fourth outing, he draws the Oakland A’s, a struggling lineup that is tied for the fourth-most punchouts (155) and has struck out at least eight times in four of their last five games. For an extra punch, the A’s are at a disadvantage facing lefties over righties.
I totally understand needing nine K’s is a high number, but the way Rodon is humming, combined with a butter matchup at big time plus money, we need to at least throw half a unit on C-Money to stay hot. Oh, and it doesn’t hurt that his pitch count is getting elevated into the mid-to-high 90’s either.
PREDICTION: OVER 8.5 K’s (+120)
Sandy Alcantara O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Washington Nationals (5)
Another Over? Another Over. Now I’m not totally sure what the probability of picking three Over strikeouts props to hit is, but they are three good looks. This is the least confident one on the board for me tonight. I love Sandy Alcantara; he is one of the best young arms this game has to offer. Alcantara is off to a strong start with 19.1 innings, four earned runs, and 15 punchouts. One thing he needs to clean up are his walk numbers, but overall it has been positive.
Facing a Nationals team that hasn’t struck out a ton (16th-most at 141), this Total appears to be pretty sharp. Washington, though, has faced a lot of easy pitching matchups, which has skewed their K total a bit. Alcantara is probably going to be one of the top 10-12 arms they will oppose this year. While he is not a huge strikeout guy at a career 7.9 K/9, I don’t hate sprinkling a half a unit on Sandy to notch five K’s.
Our NBC Sports EDGE tool predicts 6.4 K’s.
PREDICTION: OVER 4.5 K’s (-140)
Baltimore Orioles (+235) @ New York Yankees (-290) | Over/Under 7.5 (6)
It’s quite bizarre, but the Yankees haven’t dominated the pathetic Baltimore Orioles the way you might expect. The Yanks are just 12-10 SU and 9-13 ATS vs. the Orioles since 2021. Baltimore actually took two of the first three games in their initial series of 2022. Should we try to hit them again?
Both lineups snapped out of their funk in their last series, so maybe the offenses are a bit more lively than they were in the last matchup. Jordan Lyles gets the ball for the O’s. Shaking off a rough five-run start against the Rays, he has only allowed one run in 10.1 innings over his last two starts, one of which was 5.1 innings of one-run ball against the Yanks. There are not crazy stat matchups you can take a look at to convince yourself with, but if Lyles can keep the free passes and taters down, then Baltimore has a shot to stay in this thing.
While Luis Severino has looked good so far this year -- 13 innings with three earned runs -- I’m not 100% sold to back him or the Yankees just yet, especially at this egregious price. Even if Sevy dots this lineup tonight, it likely won’t be for more than five innings. As long as Baltimore can keep it tight for the first six innings or so, they have a shot to not only cover the Run Line, but win outright. The O’s likely take at least one game from New York in this series. I think the Run Line is worth a shot, as well as a Money Line sprinkle.
PREDICTION: Orioles RL +1.5 (+115)
Have a taste, kid.
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