Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s attacking the Pirates and Padres betting market.
Pirates (+235) at Padres (-275): O/U 8.5
Yu Darvish’s team has won five straight against the Pirates in his starts and four consecutive victories came by two or more runs.
Darvish owns 67 plate appearances versus Pirates’ hitters for a .155 OBA and 16 strikeouts to nine walks and nine hits. Those six Pittsburgh batters are striking out 23.9% of the time and whiffing 25.9% against Darvish.
Pittsburgh has struggled with a 2-9 record since the All-Star break and a 4-16 record over the past 20 games.
In July, the Pirates rank 27th or worse in runs, BA, OPS, OBP, and SLG, while the Padres come in fifth or better in the same categories except batting average (14th).
Quinn Priester will make his second career start for Pittsburgh after a miserable second and third time through the order in his debut against Cleveland.
Priester didn’t allow a hit or walk through the order versus Cleveland, then permitted seven total hits and seven earned runs during the second and third time through the order.
Fernado Tatis Jr. ranks 22nd in the ML during July with a .320 batting average, while Juan Soto leads in walks (18) and Manny Machado in homers (10) and RBIs (24).
With patient, plus power hitters in the Padres’ lineup, I like the chances they win this game by two or more runs and keep Darvish’s dominance against the Pirates alive.
I grabbed San Diego on the run line at -130 odds and would go out to -150.
Pick: Padres -1.5 (1u)
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