Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bets for Thursday, including a pick in the Guardians vs Royals and a Taijuan Walker prop against the Cubs.
Guardians (-155) at Royals (+130): O/U 9.0
I believe the Guardians should be larger favorites today, so I am rolling with Cleveland to complete the sweep of the Royals.
Cleveland won 2-1 on Tuesday and dominated Kansas City 14-1 on Wednesday.
Kansas City tosses Zack Greinke on the mound for the series finale and he owns a 8.1 K% versus Cleveland hitters over 86 plate appearances with a .274 OBA.
This season, Greinke is 1-8 with a 5.31 ERA and an even worse 0-3 and 9.00 ERA in four June starts. Kansas City has lost eight-straight with Greinke on the mound and the past three home games.
Greinke’s allowed 27 hits over his past 19.0 innings for 19 earned runs and five homers. Cleveland isn’t the best offense but should have enough going for them behind Shane Bieber’s arm.
I grabbed the Guardians ML at -155 odds and would risk 1.5 units up to -175.
Cleveland is 2-7 in Bieber’s nine road starts, but this is a good oppourtinity for the trend to regress in a positive manner.
Pick: Guardians ML (1u)
Taijuan Walker O/U 16.5 Outs vs. Cubs
I am going back to the outs market as Taijuan Walker makes his second start of the season against the Chicago Cubs.
Walker has 83 plate appearances versus Chicago hitters for a .240 OBA and 19.3 K%. The Phillies hosted the Cubs earlier this season and Walker went 5.1 innings with two hits and zero earned runs over 87 pitches.
Walker exited early because he was only pitching on four days of rest, which has happened nine times this year. Walker is on five days of rest, which is his best statistically category over a three-game sample size.
With Walker on five days of rest, he owns a 3.68 ERA and his opponents average a .163 BA and .306 SLG.
The 30-year-old is putting together his best month of the season with a 1.50 ERA and .154 OBA over 30.0 innings pitched (16 H, 5 ER).
Philly has won four-straight games with Walker on the mound, six of the past seven and eight of the previous 10 games. In that 10-game span, Walker is 6-4 to the Over 16.5 Outs, including Overs in four of the past.
I played Walker Over 16.5 Outs at -125 odds and would go to 17.5 for +100 or better.
I like the chances he goes 6.0 innings as Walker’s posted 5.0 or more innings in four out of five career starts against Chicago.
Pick: Taijuan Walker Over 16.5 Outs (1u)
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