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UFC Vegas 51 has some interesting matchups. Styles make fights and we have a card filled with grappler vs. grappler matchups, striker vs. striker matchups and some distinct height advantages which make for creative gameplans to account for the contrast in styles. In this article, I will highlight the value I found in a few other fights on this card. Follow me on Twitter @CombatSportsNBC for my tracked bets. Feel free to DM me if you want my picks for any fight on the card and my thoughts on any other props or parlays you’re interested in playing.
*** Fight: Jordan Leavitt vs. Trey Ogden
** Prop Play: Under 2.5 Rounds (-113) on Pointsbet
Analysis: This fight is going to be one of those chess matches between two grapplers. Jordan Leavitt has three wins in the UFC by submission and is excellent at taking his opponents back. Trey Ogden has three straight wins via submission in rounds one or two. Ogden’s previous fight, before that win streak started, was a first round submission loss to Nick Browne via rear-naked choke. Leavitt will look to backpack Ogden to attack that rear-naked choke submission or get the fight to the ground. This will be a chess match on the ground if it gets there.
*** Fight: Martin Buday vs. Chris Barnett
** Prop Play: Martin Buday/Under 2.5 Rounds (-103) on Pointsbet
Analysis: Martin Buday has a six-inch height advantage. Chris Barnett is at a physical disadvantage that will prevent him from winning rounds and scoring a decision. His path to victory is to catch Buday standing with a big shot to finish the fight. Buday can do the same but also has win equity on the ground via submission. This fight should finish and I favor Buday because of those physical advantages.
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*** Fight: Devin Clark vs. William Knight
** Prop Play: Devin Clark by KO/TKO(+425) on Pointsbet
Analysis: Devin Clark has a clear path to victory. Clark should put William Knight on his back and work his ground and pound. He can finish this fight on the ground once he gets it there. Clark is capable of shooting a double leg takedown to get this fight to the ground or close the distance with an overhand right that transitions into the clinch to set up the takedown. He landed that overhand right vs Aleksandar Rakic that dropped him. Clark starts fast which will pay dividends since Knight has a tendency to gas. Both fighter’s gas tanks may be tested here if it reaches round three.
*** Fight: Pat Sabatini vs. TJ Laramie
** Prop Play: Pat Sabatini by Submission (+165) on Pointsbet
Analysis: Pat Sabatini is going to get this fight to the ground. His submission grappling is excellent. TJ Laramie has the striking advantage but he will not be able to keep this fight standing. Laramie is also at a height and reach disadvantage in this matchup. Sabatini should be the stronger grappler. He is very patient on the ground. The expectation is he takes his time to secure position and should win via submission.
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