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Which trend is most important?
Traditionally, races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway have been won by veterans more often than Young Guns, but last year Aric Almirola won his third career race in what was then known as the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. Christopher Bell in second and Ross Chastain in eighth also had strong runs. But most of the top-10 finishers had quite a few wins already to their credit and have been on the circuit for a long time.
At 7-3, that suggests veteran experience should carry the day, but NASCAR’s introduction of the NextGen car changes the dynamic again and one need look no further than the five new winners this season to see the impact that has had on the field. Young Guns cannot be ignored, but the numbers are dwindling on drivers without a win.
The same is true for unique winners in 2022. With 13 playoff slots already requested in NASCAR’s commonly, but erroneously, phrased win-and-in scenario, 43 percent of the top 30 drivers have victories. The majority of the remaining teams can win on a given Sunday, but we are starting to see an increasing number of repeaters. In the past six races, three wins have been either the second or third for that driver; the other three were new winners.
There has not yet been a repeat winner two weeks in a row.
If that pattern holds, New Hampshire can expect another new winner this season and there are plenty of strong candidates among both veterans and Young Guns. And if that pattern holds, the series will head into Daytona International Speedway with 16 winners and a full playoff grid. It won’t be over, however, since a 17th winner would eliminate a team that counted on their victory to make the Playoff 16 on a track that is always unpredictable.
Beginning this week, don’t sleep on longshots. Do the math and find the sweet spot, but with seven races remaining in the regular season of 2022, there are plenty of opportunities to hedge bets and be profitable.
Austin Cindric (+6000) was on our radar screen to be included in the Best Bet post this week. He didn’t quite make the cut, but he may well be the most-improved driver over the past couple of months. Beginning at Kansas Speedway, he has been extremely consistent. He missed the top 10 that race and finished 11th, and then ran into trouble at Charlotte Motor Speedway before finishing 11th again at World Wide Technology Raceway. In the last four races, he has not finished worse than seventh, which makes this his longest top-10 streak in the Cup series. The team needs to call a perfect race to give him track position, but at 60/1, there is a huge upside to starting him.
Intermediate, flat tracks are drivers’ tracks. Horsepower and handling are a smaller percentage of the equation than on unrestricted, intermediate speedways and that is why veterans have traditionally run well here. Brad Keselowski (+9000) will not make the playoffs unless he wins. It’s not even looking at the math since this scenario is shifting so rapidly. The last four races at New Hampshire have been won by a driver who is still winless in 2022; Keselowski is one of them with a win in 2020. Last year he finished third and in the past seven races, he’s been in the top 10 in every race but one when he ran into trouble in the 2018 race.
Almirola (+2500) and the entire Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) organization has not run as strong in 2022 as the past and it’s hard to think of the No. 10 as a favorite to win. In recent weeks, however, Almirola has walked back some of the statements about wanting to retire and a big part of the reason for that might be a strong run at Gateway, another intermediate, flat track, where he finished fifth. Last year’s New Hampshire win was a little surprising, but it is part of three top-10s in his last four races on this 1-mile flat track.
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At 18/1, William Byron (+1800) has the lowest odds among drivers that were not previewed in the Best Bets post. That fits this week’s narrative that dark horses are considered such for a good reason on this intermediate, flat track. It’s dangerous to handicap on a negative, but occasionally there is a valid argument to be had for a driver being due. Byron has not had a top-10 on an oval since he won at Martinsville Speedway earlier this spring, but that is another short, flat track and factors into his handicap. He’s also coming off a major short track win at Slinger Superspeedway, which is his sixth late model trophy in seven 2022 starts.
Tyler Reddick (+2200) is in an awkward position this week. He announced he will leave Richard Childress Racing (RCR) in a year and a half and join 23XI Racing in 2024. That is a long time to be a lame duck, especially when his teammate is the grandson of the owner in an organization that has not found recent longevity with a non-family member. There is a reason Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan signed him this early, however, and that is an innate talent that makes him one of the hottest Young Guns.
Sidelined by COVID-19 protocols, Chris Buescher (+12500) was forced to sit out Gateway. As a result, the only intermediate, flat track data we have to look at is his Phoenix Raceway effort at the start of the season. He finished 10th in that race and added another top-10 on a 1-mile oval at Dover Motor Speedway. Granted, these two tracks are dissimilar in their banking, but drivers are in traffic for a comparable amount of time. Buescher also has a pair of top-10s on road courses in the last four weeks to give him momentum.
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