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The Xfinity series has only visited Pocono Raceway since 2016 and with just six races in the books, the data is a little thin. Complicating that problem, this oddly-shaped track doesn’t have a lot of comparatives, especially since Indianapolis Motor Speedway moved their race to the road course instead of the rectangular oval – and a host of Cup interlopers in the past few years have taken away several opportunities for the regulars to earn top-10s.
That creates a lot of uncertainty. One of the ways you can tell just how tight the field will be is by looking at sportsbook lines. This week, seven drivers open under 10/1 at PointsBet Sportsbook and another pair are at +1000. That makes this race a ‘Pick ‘Em.’
There are a couple of Cup drivers in the field, but they are not the big names we came to expect in previous years. Cole Custer (+450) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+850) are counted among the top seven drivers and will have an impact, but one gets the sense that this is more about improving their instincts for the big series instead of trying to compete flat out for this week’s victory.
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Proposed Winner
Pocono tends to be dominated by well-established teams. This is true in Xfinity as well as Cup – and even though there are only a handful of drivers who have made five or more starts in Pocono’s six races, one can look to the experience of the team to bridge that gap.
This is where Ty Gibbs (+400) has been such a frequent favorite this year. He hasn’t been bulletproof this season, but when he stays out of trouble, he contends for wins. In fact, he has four this year on a variety of tracks that includes the short, flat track of Richmond Raceway and the road course of Road America. Both of those tracks have similar characteristics to Pocono in that drivers have to back up the corner to find the best place to accelerate at the apex.
Gibbs has one previous Pocono start. He finished second in this race last year behind Austin Cindric, who is not entered this week.
Best Bets for a top five
Justin Allgaier (+500) is one of four drivers who have been in all six races on this track. His results haven’t always been great, but JR Motorsports has been the class of the field along with Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR). Allgaier is still seeking his first win at Pocono, but he came close on two occasions with a second in 2017 and a third-place finish last year. Moreover, coming off last week’s New Hampshire Motor Speedway win – on another flat track – he has a current streak of seven oval top-10s to his credit along with wins at Darlington Raceway and Nashville Superspeedway.
If Custer (+450) were in stronger equipment, we might have made him the favorite this week. The No. 07 and 08 have done the most they can with funding that is less than the Goliaths in the field, however, and this is a track where driver input is a bigger part of the equation. Custer has not raced here since 2019, but he left on the highest of notes with a win that year. In fact, he has never finished worse that seventh in three starts and that plays into his favor.
Austin Hill (+1200) is an undervalued driver most weeks and that could pay greater dividends than the usual suspects. At 12/1, he’s not lucrative enough to use as a side bet, but his win at Atlanta Motor Speedway turned a few heads. He’s riding a nine-race, top-15 streak into Pocono. Seven of those were top-10s and along with his Georgia victory, he has three other top-fives.
Brandon Jones (+1300) also represents a good bet above the 10/1 mark. He is another racer who has been in all six Xfinity events held on this track and we believe that experience will translate into a top-five finish. If it does, it will be his first at Pocono, but he was seventh in last year’s race and has seven top-10s to his credit this year. One of those was a victory on the short, flat track of Martinsville Speedway and another was a second on the similarly flat Phoenix Raceway.
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