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Road courses have truly become wild card events. The last two races have been won by first time winners with Ross Chastain taking Circuit of the Americas (COTA) and his teammate Daniel Suarez winning at Sonoma Raceway. Last year, Christopher Bell earned his first Cup win at Daytona International Speedway on the road course.
If that were not enough of a reason to look deeper in the order for this week’s winner, the 2022 races have been distinctly different than 2021 for many of the drivers in the field. Some of the favorites, like Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney, carried their momentum over from last year, but most top-10 finishers this year have been fresh-faced.
Drivers like Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch have not been able to back up their 2021 records, but they are strong enough overall to still be considered favorites. This week, the confidence level that most of the Best Bets drivers will finish in the top 10 is relatively low. Their position will be usurped by some of the drivers in this post, but with the level of uncertainty that has defined this year, it’s hard to know who they will be.
Compounding the issue is that Road America will host only their second Cup race in the Modern Era. Rumors abound that this historic track could be two-and-done are circulating as the venue could be replaced with a street course in Chicago in 2023. If that is true, the competition to join Elliott and Tim Flock in the record books will be intense.
And, of course, every driver without a win this season wants to take one of the next four slots in the playoffs. Former winners want to add to their bonus points. Conventional race strategy produces winners, but there have been plenty of successful Hail Mary’s thrown throughout the years.
Kevin Harvick (+3000) is a big-named driver who commands respect, but for the moment he must be considered a dark horse. The PointsBet Sportsbook traders agree: His 30/1 opening line ranks 18th in the field. The rationale for that is apparent because he has only three top-10s in his last nine road course races. But it is the most recent of these that makes him attractive this week. At Sonoma, he was one of four drivers seeking their first 2022 victory who finished fourth or better. Harvick has not forgotten how to drive on a road course, and a little strategy could put him in position to win.
One can’t go to a road course and not consider AJ Allmendinger (+1400). His victory last year on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course was not a fluke and he almost backed it up at COTA this spring before he was knocked off course on the final lap while leading. That plunged him to 33rd in the running order. Problems last fall in Charlotte and an anemic showing at Sonoma have kept him from living up to his potential, but this is a driver who can strike without notice.
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Road courses require a different set of skills than unrestricted, intermediate speedways. These are drivers’ tracks, on which skill often trumps horsepower and that makes Brad Keselowski (+7000) an interesting proposition this week. The struggles at RFK Racing are real and not going to be overcome completely, but the strong run at Sonoma by teammate Chris Buescher (+3500) shows how strong the team can be. Both drivers deserve attention, but at 70/1, Keselowski has long enough odds to almost demand a modest wager. Do it before the weekend activities begin, however, because his odds will plummet if he has a strong practice.
Alex Bowman (+2800) got off to a great start last year with top-10s in his first three races. That streak was snapped at Road America when he developed brake fade and had to ease back on the throttle. He finished 22nd that weekend and failed to crack the top 15 in his next two road course starts, so he cannot be considered a favorite. He rebounded at the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course and finished 10th. This spring, he was in the mix at COTA with a second-place finish. Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) has been stronger than Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) overall, so that could make him a better value than Harvick.
Since the 2022 road course schedule has been overfilled with surprises, intrepid bettors can look for long odds and commit a little of their budget on drivers above 100/1. If your betting strategy includes a couple of wagers at these high lines, a modest bet on Erik Jones (+12500) is not out of the question. In better equipment, he has several top-fives and while he has not finished that well in the past two seasons, he contends for top-10s about half the time on this track type. Two of Jones’ last four road course attempts ended in single-digit results, including a ninth earlier this year at COTA.
Justin Haley (+25000) does not have the same mystique on this track type as his teammate Allmendinger, but he benefits from his experience and is becoming a solid road course racer. And eighth-place finish on the Indy road course last year was partly attributable to a high degree of attrition and that is his only top-10, but he’s come close in both races of 2022. A 15th at COTA and 12th at Sonoma suggests Haley is moving in the right direction, and as Kaulig Racing’s full-time driver, he has the added incentive being in playoff contention if he wins.
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Dark Horses for the 2022 Save Mart 350k [Sonoma]
EchoPark Grand Prix [COTA]
2021 Jockey 250 [Road America]
