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Xfinity returns to road course racing this week for the Portland Grand Prix at Portland International Raceway. This is the inaugural race for the event giving drivers equal, albeit uneven, footing.
There’s a clear favorite at the track type in AJ Allmendinger. The road course veteran is listed with better than 2:1 odds making him a clear favorite with a not so flashy reward. This is the first of four road courses in the next nine races and the momentum from this race can make or break a driver’s summer.
JR Motorsports has been the dominating force this year with five wins in 13 races, three of which came in the last four weeks. In stark contrast, JRM is on a winless streak at road courses going back to 2018. And yet, Noah Gragson has the second-best record on road courses of current full-time drivers. He has yet to record a win, but he’ll be JRM’s best bet to break the streak. Josh Berry (+850) is coming off two wins in four races and Sam Mayer has improved immensely over the last eight races, the JR Motorsports stable of drivers are one of the few things that could ruin Allmendinger’s Saturday.
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Proposed Winner
The streak has officially ended for Allmendinger (+180) after 12 consecutive top-10 finishes to start the season, last week at Charlotte Motor Speedway (oval) he got shuffled back in the final stage and finished 19th. One sub-par result on a “cookie-cutter” should have no effect on his performance this weekend at Portland. Allmendinger has his only win on the season at fellow road course, the Circuit of the Americas (COTA). He was heavily favored that weekend and he’s favored again.
Allmendinger has the best road course record of current Xfinity drivers with an average finish of 1.86 in the last seven races. Going back further, through his last 16 road course races he has an average of 7.75 dragged down by two crashes, one at 2019 Watkins Glen International and one at the 2021 Daytona International Speedway road course. Catastrophe is the only thing in between Allmendinger and a top-five finish.
Allmendinger has a chance to start a new streak this week if he grabs the checkers for the third road course race in a row.
Best Bets for a top five
Gragson (+475) is currently on a five-race top-10 streak on road courses. He found his footing halfway through last season with a ninth-place finish at Road America and improved from there. In the first three road course campaigns of 2021 he had an average finish of 34.67, in the last four road course races of 2021 he flipped the switch for an average of 6.75. Improving on the run, he finished fourth this year at COTA. Gragson is currently 33 points out of first-place in the standings with two wins and nine top-fives in 13 races this year.
Mayer (+750) is getting hot at the right time this season with top-fives in seven of his last eight starts of 2022. His average through the first five races was 20.75, and the average through the last eight races is 7.13. What was the turning point? COTA. Mayer finished fifth at the road course to start his current campaign of success. If Mayer continues to show up at the road courses he could be a chance for JR Motorsports to snap their winless streak on them going back to 2018. His teammate Given his overall record, Gragson has a better likelihood but new tracks like new winners and Mayer is still looking for his first win of the year.
Ty Gibbs (+360) hasn’t shown a lot on the road course since his 2021 victory at Watkins Glen, but in his seven career starts, he has two wins and a third-place finish. That shows he can get it done on the track type. Everyone is heading into Portland with the same amount of experience on the track and Gibbs beat the field under similar conditions in his first Xfinity start on the Daytona road course in 2021. Gibbs has led laps in all seven road course starts.
Brandon Jones (+1800) is the Dark Horse of the group. He’s had a stealthily good season landing him in seventh in the points, with one win, one second-place finish and six top-10s. He’s uneven on road courses, however; for every good performance there’s a bad one, usually working in a one-for-one tandem. Good news, he finished 18th at COTA this season, setting him up for a good next effort. Jones has an average finish of 12.1 over the last ten road course races, in this data set he has six top-10s and four top-fives with a best finish on Daytona road in 2020.
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2022 Xfinity Pit Boss 250 [COTA]
United Rentals 200 [Phoenix 1]
Alsco Uniforms 300 [Charlotte]
