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When the checkers waved over the M&Ms 400 at Pocono Raceway, it appeared Denny Hamlin was in a great position regarding the playoffs. The five bonus points he received for his victory would have given him 17, just three behind the current playoff leader. In post-race inspection, NASCAR found something they didn’t like in the front fascia – something that gave the Toyota an aero advantage.
Kyle Busch was the second-place driver. If he had inherited the win, he would have 11 points, putting him in the same ballpark as most of the top five ranked drivers. But the same infraction was found on the nose of the No. 18 and as a result, NASCAR disqualified both.
The driver in third, Chase Elliott inherited the win without ever leading a lap. NASCAR has said no further penalties are forthcoming, which if they adhered to a no-tolerance policy could have resulted in the further loss of race points and a reduction of playoff bonus points. Currently Brad Keselowski is laboring against negative 10 points for what NASCAR deemed a more egregious infraction.
Hamlin was credited with a 35th-place finish; Busch 36th. Those numbers factor into the Power Rankings, but with the Average Running Position and Driver Rating calculated outside of the disqualification, the strength they showed in the race also impacts the chart below.
And that, folks, is one reason why we use strength-based stats in addition to race results.
Top 10
1. Chase Elliott (Last week: 1)
Weeks in the top 10: 21
Weeks as #1: 9
Wins: 4 (Dover, Nashville, Atlanta 2, Pocono)
Power Average: 3.74
As Busch said after backing into the win on the Bristol Motor Speedway dirt track, ‘you take ‘em as you get ‘em’. Elliott finished third on the track at Pocono, but wound up with another ‘W’ and his fifth consecutive top-two finish heading into NASCAR’s fourth road course race of the season – a track type on which he’s dominated. In the past 45 days dating back to Sonoma Raceway, Elliott has a perfect record of top-10s.
2. Ross Chastain (Last week: 2)
Weeks in the top 10: 17
Weeks as #1: 4
Wins: 2 (Talladega 2; COTA)
Power Average: 7.03
After getting pinched into the wall, Chastain said he knew he had it coming, but the real question is whether the feud with Hamlin is over. Likely, the answer to that changed after post-race inspection because if the driver of the No. 11 was inclined to let bygones be bygones after scoring his third win, the pill may still be bitter now that he does not have the morale boost of those five bonus points. The bottom line is that Chastain still needs to look over his shoulder for a while.
3. Daniel Suarez (Last week: 7) +4
Weeks in the top 10: 4
Wins: 1 (Sonoma)
Power Average: 8.53
While it may seem odd to see Suarez ranked above drivers like Kyle Larson and Hamlin, he deserves the respect. Since winning his first career race at Sonoma, he has a perfect streak of top-15s and his last four attempts were top-10s. Equally important, Suarez is now seven spots above the playoff cutline and as long as he keeps running this well, he will cruise into the playoffs with momentum. Who knows, the road courses have been so unpredictable in 2022 that he could get another win, which could rank him in the top-five among those contenders.
4. Kyle Larson (Last week: 5) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 21
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (Auto Club)
Power Average: 8.54
He lost track position and couldn’t get back to the front, but for a while Larson looked like the Larson we remembered from 2021. Equally important, he added a playoff bonus point with his Stage 1 win and after scoring victories in two World of Outlaws Sprint car races since July 12th, he has a little extra confidence. Larson is the highest ranked driver among those with one win, but he’d really like another before Daytona International Speedway ends the regular season.
5. Kevin Harvick (Last week: 6) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 10
Power Average: 9.36
Emotions can be difficult at this stage of the season. Five races remain and even if a new winner isn’t crowned, Harvick would have to finish about 17 positions ahead of Truex on average in each race to get in on points. That’s unlikely to happen. It can’t feel good to be collateral damage in the Hamlin vs. Chastain feud, especially when it takes away an opportunity to win.
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6. Ryan Blaney (Last week: 3) -3
Weeks in the top 10: 21
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (All-Star)
Power Average: 9.57
Blaney is such a lowkey driver that it’s hard to know when he’s pressing the envelope. Last week, it was obvious as he reached a little too far and spun off Turn 3 at Pocono. When the checkers wave over the regular season finale at Daytona, it may be that the only way into the playoffs is to win, but that is not certain yet and Blaney has got to walk a fine line between earning points and a trophy.
7. Martin Truex Jr. (Last week: 4) -3
Weeks in the top 10: 21
Power Average: 9.62
Truex snapped a four-race streak of finishes outside the top 10 with his fourth-place finish at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, but since that could easily have been a victory that would have taken the guesswork out of the playoffs, there was the chance it might not provide any momentum. Last week’s seventh at Pocono helped a lot because it is the first time since this spring, (when he scored three straight top-10s at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Circuit of the Americas (COTA), and Richmond Raceway), that he’s had two strong runs back-to-back.
8. Christopher Bell (Last week: 10) +2
Weeks in the top 10: 13
Wins: 1 (New Hampshire)
Power Average: 11.35
From Dover Motor Speedway through World Wide Technology Raceway, Bell earned five straight top-10s. His next four races produced only one more. After winning at New Hampshire and taking some of the pressure off, he has back-to-back top-fives. The mental game in NASCAR cannot be disregarded.
9. Denny Hamlin (Last week: 12) +3
Weeks in the top 10: 5
Wins: 2 (Richmond 1, Charlotte oval)
Power Average: 11.54
Since NASCAR did not deduct points from Hamlin after last week’s disqualification, one can assume that the aero advantage gained by the improper fascia was not great enough to give him a huge performance boost, although in a sport where thousandths of a second build up, it doesn’t take much for a leg up. The DQ does not detract from the way the team called their strategy, their pit stops, or the way they managed track position and Hamlin deserves his spot among the Power Rankings top 10.
10. Kurt Busch (Last week: 9) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 3
Wins: 1 (Kansas 1)
Power Average: 12.03
Concussion symptoms kept Busch from competing last week. There is every reason to believe he would have had a solid run since he was fast in practice and qualifying among the top 10 when he lost control of his car and slammed the wall. The Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course race will be a good gauge of where his momentum will land with only a handful of races before the playoffs, but after scoring no points at Pocono, he is now at greatest risk of being eliminated if there are 17 unique winners before Darlington Raceway.
Drivers outside the top 10 with wins: William Byron [2] (Atlanta 1, Martinsville 1), Joey Logano [2] (Darlington 1, Gateway), Austin Cindric (Daytona 1), Alex Bowman (Las Vegas), Chase Briscoe (Phoenix 1), Kyle Busch (Bristol dirt), and Tyler Reddick (Road America).
Dropped from the Top 10
11. Austin Cindric (Last week: 8) -3
Weeks in the top 10: 5
Weeks as #1: 2
Wins: 1 (Daytona 1)
Power Average: 14.40
It’s difficult to know how much damage Cindric incurred as he was drug back to the pits after cutting a tire, but that happened early in the race and destroyed his Average Running Position and Driver Rating. Coupled with his 31st-place race finish, he dropped from the top 10, but he’s strong on road courses and there are two of those in the next four weeks. He should rebound.
Winners, Last 45 Days (Outright Odds to win)
M&Ms 400, Chase Elliott (+650)
Ambetter 301, Christopher Bell (+1300)
Quaker State 400, Chase Elliott (+1000)
Kwik Trip 250, Tyler Reddick (+2500)
Ally 400, Chase Elliott (+900)
Save Mart 350k, Daniel Suarez (+1400)
Power Average, Last 45 Days
This | Driver | Power | Factors | Difference |
1. | 3.74 | 1 | 0 | |
2. | 7.03 | 2 | 0 | |
3. | 8.53 | 7 | 4 | |
4. | 8.54 | 5 | 1 | |
5. | 9.36 | 6 | 1 | |
6. | 9.57 | 3 | -3 | |
7. | Martin Truex, Jr. | 9.62 | 4 | -3 |
8. | 11.35 | 10 | 2 | |
9. | 11.54 | 12 | 3 | |
10. | 12.03 | 9 | -1 | |
| ||||
11. | 14.40 | 8 | -3 | |
12. | 14.55 | 14 | 2 | |
13. | 14.82 | 18 | 5 | |
14. | 15.45 | 13 | -1 | |
15. | 16.39 | 20 | 5 | |
16. | 16.43 | 17 | 1 | |
16. | 16.43 | 16 | 0 | |
18. | 16.82 | 11 | -7 | |
19. | 17.00 | 19 | 0 | |
20. | 17.96 | 23 | 3 | |
21. | 18.07 | 21 | 0 | |
22. | 18.09 | 27 | 5 | |
23. | 18.13 | 15 | -8 | |
24. | 18.90 | 22 | -2 | |
25. | 18.91 | 24 | -1 | |
26. | 18.97 | 25 | -1 | |
27. | 20.11 | 29 | 2 | |
28. | 20.52 | 26 | -2 | |
29. | 21.29 | 28 | -1 | |
30. | 22.45 | 32 | 2 | |
31. | 23.78 | 31 | 0 | |
32. | 25.50 |
| NA | |
33. | 26.25 | 34 | 1 | |
34. | 26.29 | 35 | 1 | |
35. | 26.40 | 33 | -2 | |
36. | 29.46 | 38 | 2 | |
37. | 29.73 | 36 | -1 | |
38. | 29.80 | 37 | -1 | |
39. | 30.80 | 39 | 0 | |
40. | 31.00 | 43 | 3 | |
41. | 31.96 | 40 | -1 | |
42. | 33.40 | 42 | 0 | |
43. | 33.88 | 44 | 1 | |
44. | 36.00 | 45 | 1 |
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2022, After Week 20 [New Hampshire]
After Week 15 [Gateway]
After Week 4 [Phoenix 1]
2021 After Week 21 [New Hampshire]
