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There were wholesale changes to the Power Rankings this grid as the past 45 days now include the races from Charlotte Motor Speedway’s Coke 600 through the Kwik Trip 250 at Road America. One major reason for this is that 2/5ths of the events in that span were run on road courses, but that is representative of what we will see in the next seven races with another pair of contests on this track type coming up.
Next week, the series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the second race on a new configuration that devolved that event into a pack racing lottery. Even then, it will be representative of what we’re going to face with Daytona International Speedway providing the regular season closer.
Tyler Reddick’s victory at Road America makes him the 13th full-time driver to win this season. Eight races remain before the playoffs begin and there are only three slots open for new winners. If there are four more unique winners, one of the drivers who thought they could rely on their victory to make the playoffs will not be in the championship hunt. If Ryan Blaney makes up the 33-point deficit he has to Chase Elliott and gets the points lead, he automatically earns a spot in the playoffs.
There are several ways to look at the next couple of races that suggests another four unique winners is not out of the question. There are four wild cards in the deck with two road courses and two pack races. And there are at least four drivers who have run well enough to win on the other four tracks, including last year’s multiple winners Blaney and Martin Truex Jr.
No matter how you look at the numbers, several drivers are going to have sleepless nights between now and August 27th.
Top 10
1. Ross Chastain (Last week: 1)
Weeks in the top 10: 14
Weeks as #1: 3
Wins: 2 (Talladega 2; COTA)
Power Average: 7.07
No matter what happens next week in the Atlanta lottery, Chastain is the driver with the most momentum. In pack racing, everyone knows that catastrophe lurks around every corner, so even if he finishes last, it will not affect the team. Chastain now has top-10s in his last four attempts and top-fives in the last two. He is also one of five drivers with two wins, so he is mathematically in the playoffs.
2. Kyle Larson (Last week: 2)
Weeks in the top 10: 18
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (Auto Club)
Power Average: 8.48
He didn’t win last week, but Larson made the statement he needed by finishing third. He earned his second consecutive top-five and is beginning to look like a driver capable of winning multiple times – if, indeed that is possible with the NextGen car. He has not shown championship caliber this year, but that doesn’t really matter until the playoffs begin.
3. Daniel Suarez (Last week: 12) +9
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Wins: 1 (Sonoma)
Power Average: 9.24
Suarez did not have the numbers to elevate him into the Power Rankings Top 10 last week despite his victory. That was because three of his previous five races landed outside the top 20, but the worst of those – a 33rd at Darlington Raceway – aged out of the formula. Now he has two top-fives and a 15th in the last 45 days, and has run well enough in each of those races to give him solid Average Running Positions and Driver Rating. He has a good chance to make the list next week when his 25th at Charlotte stops dragging him down.
4. Ryan Blaney (Last week: 4)
Weeks in the top 10: 18
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (All-Star)
Power Average: 9.50
The television commentators focused on Blaney’s second stage win at Road America, suggesting that he believes he’ll make the playoffs and wanted the bonus point. That is valid, but we would add that the 10 stage points he earned at Road America helped him stay in touch with Elliott for the regular season championship. There are multiple ways to skin a cat.
5. Chase Elliott (Last week: 10) +5
Weeks in the top 10: 18
Weeks as #1: 7
Wins: 2 (Dover, Nashville)
Power Average: 10.45
Elliott was clinging to the Power Rankings Top-10 last week despite his Nashville Superspeedway win. That was because three consecutive sub-20th-place finishes from Charlotte through World Wide Technology Raceway were dragging him down. They are gone from the formula and one of his worst results of the season will age out this week so that even if he pulls a high pill from the lottery hopper at Atlanta, he should be safe. He needs to survive the Quaker State 400 to keep from backsliding again, but he has swept the top 10 in plate races so far this year.
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6. Martin Truex Jr. (Last week: 5) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 18
Power Average: 10.85
Truex has been much stronger on the established road courses of Sonoma and Watkins Glen International, but we had high hopes for him at Road America because he challenged for the Ally 400 win at Nashville. He finished outside the top 10 for the fourth time in the last five road course races, but there are still a couple of places where he can excel before the playoffs begin. His next best shot will come at Richmond Raceway.
7. Michael McDowell (Last week: 13) +6
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Power Average: 11.00
McDowell debuts on the Power Ranking list for the first time this year and he may be one of the most improved drivers in the past 10 weeks. In that span, he has six top-10s to his credit and they have not all been wild card events, Staying here will be tricky in this age of parity, but it’s refreshing to see him among the top 10 this deep into the season.
8. Joey Logano (Last week: 6) -2
Weeks in the top 10: 18
Weeks as #1: 2
Wins: 2 (Darlington 1, Gateway)
Power Average: 11.15
Logano’s erratic season has been such that he has stayed inside the top 10 as long as anyone because has not had terrible finishes for more than two consecutive events. Even now, his win at Gateway and ninth at Nashville give this team a platform on which to build. He’ll be happy to see the series stay on ovals for a while, however, because he does not yet have a top-15 on road courses in 2022.
9. Kevin Harvick (Last week: 11) +2
Weeks in the top 10: 4
Power Average: 11.28
Strong runs are not going to get Harvick into the playoffs. He is 11th in the points, but dropped below the cutline last week with Reddick’s win. It’s not hard to imagine him making up 20 points on Bell, but if there is another new winner in 2022, he is currently 61 behind Truex. He needs to win, not just for pride, but to keep his championship hopes alive.
10. Tyler Reddick (Last week: 15) +5
Weeks in the top 10: 6
Wins: 1 (Road America)
Power Average: 11.76
Reddick has come close to winning so many times this year. That fact alone would have made him one of the best storylines of the season, but if ever there was a quintessential nice guy, he’s it – and it’s refreshing to see him finish first. He went from being outside of the championship hunt to being ranked eighth in the playoffs, but he’s not out of jeopardy just yet because he has only a 21-point cushion over Suarez as the driver ranked lowest with one win.
Drivers outside the top 10 with wins: William Byron [2] (Atlanta 1, Martinsville 1), Denny Hamlin [2] (Richmond 1, Charlotte), Austin Cindric (Daytona 1), Alex Bowman (Las Vegas), Chase Briscoe (Phoenix 1), Kyle Busch (Bristol dirt), and Kurt Busch (Kansas 1).
Dropped from the Top 10
13. Christopher Bell (Last week: 7) -6
Weeks in the top 10: 10
Power Average: 12.58
Don’t be surprised if Bell continues to fall down the list as this team takes increasingly greater risks to get him into Victory Lane. He is on the bubble and is not safe either from being overhauled by Harvick or displaced by a new winner. This team cannot rely on making the championship hunt on points alone. The good news is his last six oval races have ended in top-10s and we are about to hit a string of those.
14. Denny Hamlin (Last week: 9) -5
Weeks in the top 10: 3
Wins: 2 (Richmond 1, Charlotte oval)
Power Average: 13.08
Hamlin’s second win of the season at Charlotte is going to turn out to be critical for this team. He would be the lowest driver in points by a wide margin among single-race winners and there would be little to no question about him being bumped if there is a 16th winner. In the four races since winning the Coke 600, he has finished worse than 30th twice and 17th once.
16. Kyle Busch (Last week: 3) -13
Weeks in the top 10: 14
Weeks as #1: 2
Wins: 1 (Bristol dirt)
Power Average: 13.78
Busch tumbled down the rankings with three consecutive sub-20th-place results and Road America may well be his worst performance of the year. His 29th-place finish was further dragged down by the 31st Average Running Position (28.6) and 30th-worst Driver Rating of 42.1 (of a possible 150). Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) has a lot to figure out on the road courses.
17. Kurt Busch (Last week: 8) -9
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Wins: 1 (Kansas 1)
Power Average: 14.52
Busch is a much better road racer than he showed at Road America, but that is the challenge of handicapping races in this age of unparalleled parity. He is in that tight scrum with Reddick, Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe, and Suarez to have the fewest points among winners. This is going to be a nail-biter. Last week, he jumped 12 spots because of his Kansas Speedway win; this week, he dropped nine. That should tell you all you need to know about the volatility NASCAR is currently experiencing.
Winners, Last 45 Days (Outright Odds to win)
Kwik Trip 250, Tyler Reddick (+2500)
Ally 400, Chase Elliott (+900)
Save Mart 350k, Daniel Suarez (+1400)
Enjoy Illinois 300, Joey Logano (+850)
Coke 600, Denny Hamlin (+1200)
All-Star Race, Ryan Blaney (+1000)
Power Average, Last 45 Days
This | Driver | Power | Last | Difference |
1. | 7.07 | 1 | 0 | |
2. | 8.48 | 2 | 0 | |
3. | 9.24 | 12 | 9 | |
4. | 9.50 | 4 | 0 | |
5. | 10.45 | 10 | 5 | |
6. | 10.85 | 5 | -1 | |
7. | 11.00 | 13 | 6 | |
8. | 11.15 | 6 | -2 | |
9. | 11.28 | 11 | 2 | |
10. | 11.76 | 15 | 5 | |
|
|
|
|
|
11. | 11.83 | 22 | 11 | |
12. | 11.95 | 18 | 6 | |
13. | 12.58 | 7 | -6 | |
14. | 13.08 | 9 | -5 | |
15. | 13.43 | 14 | -1 | |
16. | 13.78 | 3 | -13 | |
17. | 14.52 | 8 | -9 | |
18. | 14.83 | 17 | -1 | |
19. | 15.35 | 16 | -3 | |
20. | 15.39 | 23 | 3 | |
21. | 15.79 | 21 | 0 | |
22. | 16.45 | 19 | -3 | |
23. | 18.00 | 29 | 6 | |
24. | 18.65 | 20 | -4 | |
25. | 19.38 | 27 | 2 | |
26. | 19.68 | 24 | -2 | |
27. | 20.63 | 25 | -2 | |
28. | 21.17 | 33 | 5 | |
29. | 21.25 | 28 | -1 | |
30. | 21.96 | 30 | 0 | |
31. | 23.05 | 33 | 2 | |
32. | 23.90 | 32 | 0 | |
33. | 24.52 | 26 | -7 | |
34. | 26.60 | 31 | -3 | |
35. | 29.38 | 37 | 2 | |
36. | 29.45 | 39 | 3 | |
37. | 29.60 | 35 | -2 | |
38. | 30.63 | 35 | -3 | |
39. | 31.75 | 41 | 2 | |
40. | 32.75 |
| NA | |
41. | 32.84 | 38 | -3 | |
42. | 33.40 | 42 | 0 | |
43. | 36.40 | 43 | 0 |
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2022, After Week 16 After Week 16 [Sonoma] [https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/power-rankings/2022-power-rankings-after-save-mart-350k]
After Week 6 [COTA] [https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/power-rankings/2022-power-rankings-after-week-6]
2021, After Week 18 [Pocono] [https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/power-rankings/power-ranking-after-pocono]