Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bets in the Eastern Conference semifinals between the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics.
76ers at Celtics (-10): O/U 213.0
Game 1 between the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics is highlighted by whether or not Joel Embiid will play.
Embiid is listed as doubtful, but part of me believes Embiid will suit up since the last time he played was April 20th.
With almost two weeks off for Embiid and his remaining teammates rested with over a weeks since Game 4 versus the Nets (4/22), Philly, outside of Embiid, should be fresh and ready for Boston.
In the first round, Tobias Harris averaged 20.3 points, Tyrese Maxey scored 21.3 points per game and James Harden recorded a 17/8/5 line against the Nets.
Boston won their four games by 8, 8, 13 and 13 points, so this spread is pretty on point. However, the Celtics have been favored every game and nearly double-digits at that, so their has not been much value on Boston, unless they are coming off a loss (2-0 ATS, ML).
The last time these two met in the postseason was 2019-20, and the Celtics swept the 76ers in four games. Three of those four games resulted in wins of eight points or less for Boston. The Celtics won 4-1 in the 2017-18 playoffs as well (three wins by 5 or less), so Boston has had Philly’s number.
I played the 76ers +10 and ML at +400 odds despite that. If Embiid is out, this line may move to Boston -11 or -12, but I don’t think the 76ers roll over either way.
If Embiid is in, well this spread drops drastically and the 76ers are more live to win outright than they already are. Boston is 3-3 in its last six Game 1’s and didn’t play well during the final two games versus Atlanta.
Pick: 76ers +10 (Risk 1u), ML (Risk 0.5u)
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