Vaughn Dalzell shares his best bet in Game 6 between the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics.
Celtics (-2.5) at 76ers: O/U 212.5
The 76ers broke an 0-11 streak in Road Game 5’s that dated back to 2000 and with that victory, Philly has taken a commanding 3-2 lead in the series with a chance at the Eastern Conference Finals.
However, the Celtics open as the road favorites, moving from -1 to -2.5. Boston has 25 losses as a favorite this year and this previous game was probably the worst one outside losing to the Thunder earlier this season (150 points, though?).
Picking a side is tough as this is probably the hardest night to bet in the NBA since the start of the playoffs, so I am backing the total. At most shops, the Over is getting over 80% of the handle and tickets, so the Under is a real liability for the sports books and normally, we see Game 6’s and 7’s go Under the total because of the fourth quarter.
Game 4’s fourth quarter featured a combined 39 points and that was the most comparable game and feeling to Game 6 since the 76ers’ didn’t have Embiid for Game 1 and the rest were blowouts.
The loser in three of five games scored 103 or fewer points and it should have been four of the five had 104 points or less but Game 4 went to OT.
Both teams will run clock late in this game and if you don’t believe me, watch Joel Embiid when he gets the ball in the post and everyone on the 76ers’ stands around or when Jaylen Brown refuses to shoot and the Celtics’ are left with Marcus Smart and Al Horford three-balls at the end of the shot clock.
I would not be shocked to see one of these teams fail to reach 100 points and role players either defer to shoot and step up defensively, a la P.J. Tucker, Tobias Harris, Derrick White, Horford, Smart etc.
I played the Under 212.5 at -110 odds and would go down to 210.5, but expect this to be a sharp number.
Pick: Under 212.5 (1u)
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