Vaughn Dalzell breaks down the best bet in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals between the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers.
76ers at Celtics (-7): O/U 204.0
Game 6 was exactly like we anticipated...a snoozer and Game 7 should be another low-scoring contest.
Historically, the Unders in Game 7’s are the best bet and with both teams being clearly exhausted with each possession mounting up pressure, I will not overthink this.
Game 7’s have gone Under the total in 71% of games since 2018 and 62% of the time since 2003. The Celtics and 76ers Game 6 total was 212.5 and finished at 181 combined points. Game 7 opened at 204.0 and 203.5, moving down by 8.5 or 9.0 points from 212.5.
In the last 15 Game 7’s when the total moved at least five points lower than the previous Game 6 total, the Under is on a 13-2 winning streak (86.6%), which is in play here.
Boston shot 42.3% from the field in Game 6, while Philadelphia shot 36.1%. The last time that the 76ers played in a Game 7, they lost at home to the Atlanta Hawks in 2020-21 by a score of 103-96 (199 total points). Before that was the famous Kawhi Leonard shot for Toronto to beat Philly, 92-90 (182 total points), in a Game 7 during the 2018-19 postseason.
Boston played in two Game 7’s last season, winning both versus Milwaukee and at Miami, 109-81 and 100-96 (190 and 196 total points), both staying Under the total.
I would play this between 200 and 202 for 1 unit and anything at 202.5 or higher for 1.5 units. I played the Under 203.5 and 204.0 for a 1.5 units.
Pick: Under 204.0 (1.5u)
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