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Betting Game 1 of the ECF between the Heat and Celtics

Jimmy Butler

Jimmy Butler

Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s breaking down Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat.

Heat at Celtics (-7.5): O/U 210.5

We have a bubble rematch and one of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals between the Heat and Celtics.

These two teams have now met each other three times in the past four postseasons, so there is a ton of familiarity, however, Joe Mazzulla was not the coach of those meetings for Boston, but Erik Spoelstra was for Miami.

Boston is 3-5 in the last eight Game 1’s and 1-4 in the past five when its not the first round of the playoffs. On the other hand, Miami is 5-0 in the previous five Game 1’s, including two-straight Game 1 road wins.

Both of the Celtics’ Game 1’s totaled 211 and 234 points, while the Heat’s were 247 and 209, so this O/U of 210.5 is right on the money. However, most Game 1’s in this postseason have gone Over the total because both teams are playing quicker tempos and not as prepared for what might be thrown at them adjustment-wise.

Boston and Miami have plethora of shooters and with Miami not having much depth down low, we can expect a few games where one or both teams live or die by the three.

Jimmy Butler is still dealing with an ankle injury but with 31.1 points per game in the postseason without scoring 30 points in the entire series versus New York, I expect this series to be competitive out the gate. Jayson Tatum scored 51 points, a Game 7 record, in his previous outing and the Celtics rolled, so this number is a little inflated.

I grabbed the Heat on the spread at +7.5 (-110) and ML (+280), plus the Over 210.5 (-110).

I took the 76ers in Game 1 at +10 and on the ML at +400 against the Celtics in the previous series, let’s see if Boston falls in Game 1 once again.

Pick: Heat +7.5 (Risk 1u), Heat ML (0.25u), Over 210.5 (Risk 1u)

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