Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets.
Lakers at Nuggets (-5.5): O/U 222.5
The 2020 bubble rematch between the Nuggets and Lakers will start in Denver where the Nuggets are undefeated at home in the postseason.
The Nuggets are 6-0 at home in the playoffs while the Lakers are 7-0, however, I expect that trend will have to end in this series. The Lakers have won Both Game 1’s this season on the road at Memphis and Golden State, while Denver is 2-0 in Game 1’s, both coming at home.
LeBron James is 2-4 in his career of Game 1 road games during the Conference Finals, but 6-5 overall. In Conference Finals overall, LeBron is 10-1 in the series with the lone loss to an underrated Orland Magic team in 2009, so I do like the value on the Lakers at +130 to win the series.
For that to happen, the Lakers have to steal at least one in Denver. Los Angeles has a plethora of role players that have built up confidence alongside LeBron and Anthony Davis, a la D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, Dennis Schröder, Rui Hachimura, Lonnie Walker IV and a few more than can pop off at anytime.
I like the value presented on the Lakers in Game 1 and overall in the series, plus fading LeBron this late in the postseason is something I am not interested in.
I played the Lakers +5.5 (-110) and on the ML (+175) with a sprinkle on the Over 222.5 (-110).
Pick: Lakers +5.5 (Risk 1u), Lakers ML (0.25u), Over 222.5 (Risk 1u)
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