Donovan Mitchell O/U 33.5 Points + Assists vs. Jazz
Donovan Mitchell makes his first start versus the Jazz and it comes at home in Cleveland.
Spida Mitchell has been on fire averaging 32.6 points and 3.1 assists (35.7 P+A) in December (7 games), plus an even slightly more impressive 33.3 points and 3.3 assists in the last three games (36.6 P+A).
Mitchell scored 28 or more points in five out seven to start the month and recorded three or more assists in five contests.
While Mitchell’s 3.3 assists per game over the last three contests isn’t impressive, he averages 7.7 potential assists in that span, including 10 potential assists in his last game with only three assists converted.
Utah is a prime opponent to score points and gather assists. Over the last six games, the Jazz permit the sixth-most assists per game (27.4), allow 117.0 points per game (18th) and give up 49.4% from the field (21st).
Utah ranks 18th in defensive net rating (116.1) over that five-game span and offers little to no rim protection with the second-most points allowed in the paint per game (56.4).
With all of the attention on Mitchell and a slightly higher usage expected for tonight, I like his combo prop of points and assists.
I grabbed Mitchell Over 33.5 Points + Assists at -105 odds on DraftKings. I played his Over 28.5 Points but that is 29.5 now, still playable in my opinion.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell Over 33.5 Points + Assists (1u)
C.J. McCollum O/U 18.5 Points vs. Bucks
C.J. McCollum has been hot! After cashing Over 18.5 Points for us on Thursday, he followed that up with 27 points on Saturday (yesterday) against the Suns.
This is a back-to-back spot for McCollum, which has happened three times this season. In those three games, C.J. scored 13, 23 and 29 points on 16, 17 and 23 field goal attempts.
Over the past five games entering this one, McCollum scored 18, 29, 14, 28 and 27 points, hitting the Over 18.5 points three times with one hook.
While Milwaukee might seem like a tough defensive challenge, the Bucks allow the 10th-most points in the paint (51.3) over the last three games and rank 18th in defensive net rating (114.8).
Milwaukee is 11th in pace over the past three games and allowing opponents to hit 47% from the field and 37% from three, ranking 17th and 18th.
McCollum should see continue success with his 48% from the field and 40% from three in the previous three outings, so let’s ride the Over 18.5 Points at -120 odds.
This is 18.5 points pretty much everywhere and I’d go to 19.5 or 20+.
Pick: C.J. McCollum Over 18.5 Points (1u)
ML Parlay (-105)
Mavericks ML (-195) at Timberwolves
Packers ML (-345) vs. Rams
This is our biggest bet of the day and we’re going a cross-sport parlay for it.
The Timberwolves are coming off a 150-126 win at home versus the Bulls last night, making this the second night of a back-to-back spot. The Mavericks last played on Saturday and lost in OT, 100-99 to Cleveland without Luka Dončić, who is expected back tonight.
This is the perfect fade spot on Minnesota and great spot to back Dallas. The spread was -3 and already out to -5.5, so I missed the boat there, but think they are a great option for ML Parlays and should probably cover the -5.5.
To see what I like for the Packers game, click here, but all I have to say is the Packers are 8-0 in the last eight Monday Night Football games and Aaron Rodgers has thrown 26 touchdowns to two interceptions over that span.
The Packers control their own playoff destiny and it’s starts on Monday Night Football at home off a bye week.
I played this at -105 odds on DraftKings and I would play it out to -120.
Pick: Packers and Mavericks ML (2u)
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