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How to bet Rudy Gobert, DeMar DeRozan, SGA and Bulls/Nets, Heat/Dubs!

Rudy Gobert

Rudy Gobert

Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

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Rudy Gobert O/U 13.5 Rebounds vs. Suns

No Deandre Ayton. That means Jock Landale and Bismack Biyombo will have to guard and rebound with Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns. Good luck.

Gobert leads the NBA with 25.1 rebound chances per game and 14.7 brought down. He’s hit 14-plus rebounds in four out of seven games and coming off 12 rebounds against the Spurs and 21 boards versus the Lakers. Gobert’s season-high is 23 rebounds.

The Suns have the second-highest rated offensive rating (118.5), but without Ayton, they likely will not look as sharp offensively. Both these teams rank 18th or lower in pace, which plays into Gobert’s game.

There is a case to speed up this game for the Suns, but no matter what there is a serious mismatch down low.

Landale averages 9.7 potential rebounds this year and Biyombo is at 7.5. That’s no match for Gobert when Ayton’s absence leaves 12.0 potential rebounds on the board.

Gobert has recorded 14 or more rebounds in three of the last five meetings versus the Suns and Ayton played in all five of those outings.

The Suns allow the 11th-most rebounds to opposing centers (15.54). Gobert will make them a bottom-10 team in rebounds to opposing centers by the end of the night.

I played Gobert Over 13.5 Rebounds at -130 odds on FanDuel. I would play this at 14.5 as well.

Pick: Rudy Gobert Over 13.5 Rebounds (1u)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O/U 27.5 Points vs. Magic

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looks to continue his hot run against the Orlando Magic.

This season, SGA has scored 38, 24, 33, 28 and 32 points versus Minnesota, Denver, Dallas and the L.A. Clippers twice. The Thunder really don’t have much scoring around him as Josh Giddey remains out.

Luguentz Dort is the next highest points per game scorer for OKC (14.0) and Tre Mann is second in field goal attempts per game (13.2). SGA is owning the shot attempts for his team and should here versus Orlando’s guards.

Since Giddey has been out, SGA has gone 36-of-72 (50%) from the field, 4-of-8 from three (50%) and 19-of-19 form the free-throw line in three games. He scored 33, 24 and 38 points in those three games.

In the last 15 games without Giddey, SGA has scored 29 or more points in 12 of them (80%).

It’s also worth noting that SGA is a perfect 30-for-30 from the free-throw line this season and attempted at least 22 field goal attempts in every game.

There’s no reason why he shouldn’t see that volume here in a top-10 paced matchup between bottom-10 teams.

I played SGA Over 27.5 points at -125 odds. I would risk 1u or less at 28.5. This opened juiced at Over 26.5 (-130).

Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 27.5 Points (1u)

DeMar DeRozan O/U 24.5 Points vs. Nets

The Nets played last night and ruled Ben Simmons out of the contest, meaning Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Royce O’Neale and Joe Harris will be four guys in the starting lineup switching on DeMar DeRozan.

Irving played 43 minutes last night, Durant played 39 and O’Neale played 37 minutes. The Nets have lost seven-straight home games on the second night of a back-to-back and could be gassed here.

The Nets have the second-worst defensive net rating (119.1) and allow the third-most points per game (120.3).

On the road this year, DeRozan has scored 37, 32 and 33 points against the Heat, Wizards and Spurs. DeRozan’s 34.0 points per game on the road is fourth so far in the league and last year. He averaged 27.6 points per game away from Chicago last season.

Zach LaVine is expected to be in the lineup tonight and while that may deter people away, this is a TNT broadcast, so DeRozan will be getting his, especially in the fourth-quarter.

Last year, DeRozan led the NBA with 9.2 points per game in the fourth-quarter of road games and finished second in the fourth quarters of all games (8.4 ppg) to Kyrie Irving (9.2 ppg).

DeRozan averaged 15.1 points per game in the second-half of road games (6th) last season and this year he averages 21.7 points per game (1st) in a small three-game sample size.

I played DeRozan Over 24.5 Points at -125 odds and would play this at 25.5.

Pick: DeMar DeRozan Over 24.5 Points (1u)

Warriors at Heat (-1): O/U 225.5

The Warriors just beat the Heat at Golden State on Thursday 123-110 and now they meet in Miami with both teams riding a two-game losing streak. This is a good spot for Miami to get some payback at home.

Golden State has struggled as a road underdog of +3 or less since 2021 and they get that tag here.

The Warriors have lost four-straight games as a road underdog of +3 or less and are 2-7 ATS and on the ML since 2021, NBC’s Edge Finder.

When traveling to the East Coast, Golden State is 5-9-1 ATS (35.7%) and 7-8 on the ML (46.6%) since the start of 2021. The Warriors are 2-2 on the ML as a road underdog in East Coast games during that span and did beat the Heat... but that was as a +10 point dog and +350 on the ML, so not relatable at all.

Golden State is coming off a OT loss at Charlotte and 14-point loss at Detroit. The Warriors are simply not playing quality basketball right now, especially on the defensive end allowing the most points per game in the NBA at 122.0 and 127.3 on the road, which is also the worst.

The Heat did not look good in its loss to the Kings but coming back home to Miami with days of rest will benefit the Heat, who could have had the Warriors on their mind in a weird sandwich spot when playing in Sacramento.

I took the Heat on the ML at -115 odds and would play it to -130.

Pick: Heat ML (1u)

Bulls at Nets (-2): O/U 232.5

About this matchup, let’s ride with Bulls Nation on this one.

Yes, Steve Nash was fired and the public will want to bet Brooklyn, especially given the line movement went from Brooklyn -1 to -2. However, the Nets are terrible on the second night of a back-to-back and at home.

Since the start of 2021, Brooklyn is 7-29 ATS (19.4% and -22.64 units) and 19-17 on the ML as a home favorite (52.7% and -11.29 units), per NBC’s Edge Finder.

To start this season, Brooklyn is 1-3 ATS and 2-2 on the ML as a home favorite covering the -2.5 against Toronto (won by four).

That Raptors game was tied 100-100 with 1:46 to go and Royce O’Neale hit a three to clinch the game with 15.3 seconds left.

On the second night of a back-to-back as the home team, the Nets are 2-7 ATS and on the ML, losers of four-straight and seven of the past eight.

Another trend per Hakeem Profit of Wager Talk, “Teams with 2+ days rest that also play the next day are 15-2 SU/ATS since the 2021 season versus restless opponents.”

Chicago falls into that category because the Bulls have 2+ days of rest going versus a restless Nets team off a back-to-back last night and the Bulls have a matchup with the Hornets in Chicago tomorrow (Wednesday).

The Nets were up 33-18 in the first quarter last night versus the Pacers and did not outscore Indiana in any quarter for the rest of the game. Brooklyn won 116-109 and failed to cover at home once again.

Durant and Irving played a combined 80 minutes last night and the Nets still don’t have a defense, allowing 120.3 points per game (28th) and the second-worst defensive rating (112.6). Ben Simmons is out and he would not have made a difference anyway.

With Zach LaVine ruled in, Chicago is going all-in for the win ahead of their matchup with Charlotte tomorrow. I played the Bulls at +1.5 before the Nash news and would obviously advise the +2 if you have it out there.

Lastly, the NBA is going crazy with scheduling.

Since Wednesday the 26th, Brooklyn has played at Milwaukee, hosted Dallas, then Indiana twice and now host Chicago on the second night of a back-to-back making this the third game in four days for the Nets.

I think Chicago wins.

Pick: Bulls +1.5 (1.5u)

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