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Rockets at Jazz (-6): O/U 232.5
I teased we would be on the Jazz after our 2 unit win on the Rockets ML and we’re sticking to our word.
Utah will look for revenge after the 114-108 loss to the Rockets in Houston on Monday. Utah needed that day off after playing three games in four days with two overtime wins.
The Rockets will make the short trip to San Antonio for their third road game. Houston has alternated home and road wins in every game and this is the first of a four-game road trip.
When playing the same team back-to-back, Houston has lost the second meeting four out of the last seven times.
I played the Jazz -6 at -110 odds and would play this to -6. The spread opened at -4.5. I would not play at -7.
Pick: Jazz -6 (1u)
Spurs at Timberwolves (-9): O/U 231.0
The same logic here with a slight change for the Timberwolves.
The Spurs beat the Wolves on Monday in Minnesota, but these teams stayed put with no location change.
Minnesota was a -8.5 point favorite and this spread opened at -7 and quickly was bet up to -9. There will not be many times I bet on the Wolves spread this season, but this will be one of them. Vegas also didn’t move off what they listed them as last time, so I don’t think this is a trap spot.
The Spurs won 115-106, but were out-scored 35-12 in the fourth quarter. The Wolves dug themselves in a hole being out-scored 36-14 in the third quarter, so Minnesota will look to clean up their second-half effort versus the same team, as well as come out strong in front of the home crowd.
Losing back-to-back games to the same team is not common in the regular-season, but it does happen. However, I think Minnesota gets out to a quick start after falling behind 38-29 in the first quarter of the prior meeting. They have too much talent and sitting at 2-3 with two-straight losses to the Spurs cannot happen (in Minnesota’s minds).
Devin Vassell is doubtful in this game for the Spurs and he was a huge factor in the win over the Wolves. Vassell scored 23 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists. He has started all four games and scored 22-plus points in three-straight, so his absence will be felt.
Let’s ride the Wolves in the first quarter at -2.5 (-110) on BetMGM and the full-game spread of -8.5 (-110).
The full-game spread is -9 everywhere else and the first quarter is -3.5 (+100) in first quarter.
Shop around for the best lines.
Pick: Timberwolves 1Q -2.5 (1u), Timberwolves -9 (1u)
Hawks (-7) at Pistons: O/U 229.0
The Pistons are on a three-game losing streak coming home to face the Hawks after losing the first night of a back-to-back 120-99 to Washington without Bradley Beal for most of the game.
The duo of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray could have an outing versus this young Pistons team that’s played three games in five days with travel for each game. Detroit lost by 24, 9 and 21 points in the last three outings.
Last year, Atlanta went 1-2 ATS and on the ML versus Detroit by the line tells an interesting story here.
In the first meeting, the Hawks laid -11.5 at home. They won and covered. The next two outing Atlanta was favored -7.5 and -5 in Detroit and lost both outright. They turn around and give us a -7 spread when it should be -3 or -4.
That’s because of the second night of a back-to-back situation with travel to come home. The Pistons have permitted 120-plus points in three-straight games and should have tired legs in the second-half of this outing.
Atlanta’s Team Total is 118.5, which I considered at 117.5, but every point counts. This will be the Hawks first road game of the year, so I expect them to come out and make a statement. Those two teams play Friday and we will take the loser of this game ATS in that matchup.
I expect the Hawks to cover the -7 (-115) here and the Pistons to cover on Friday, so that’s how I’m playing this.
This is moving towards -7.5, so grab the -7 out to -125 odds or pivot to the Over Team Total.
Pick: Hawks -7 (1u)
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