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Betting Game 4 of the NBA Finals between Denver and Miami

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bet in Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets.

Nuggets (-3.5) at Heat: O/U 210.5

Denver won Game 3 in Miami, 109-94, behind Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokić‘s triple-doubles, so all the pressure is on Miami down 2-1.

Both teams shot 31% or worse from three but the difference was the Nuggets hit 51% from the field compared to the Heat’s 37% from the field.

Both squads combined for 46 free-throw attempts and Denver won the rebounding margin, 58-33. The Nuggets pretty much ran away with the game in the second-half but controlled the game from the second quarter on.

I expect this series to remain low-scoring and a defensive battle. Denver has averaged 107.0 points per game in this series and Miami’s averaged 99.3 points. However, Denver is shooting 51.3% from the field versus Miami who is hitting 41.7% in the Finals, plus averaging about 10 more free-throw attempts per game.

Guys like Kevin Love, Max Strus and Caleb Martin are all shooting 31% or worse from the field in the Finals for Miami joined by Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope from Denver.

The role players aren’t making much noise in this series outside a few stretches by guys like Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson and Aaron Gordon. The series has been all about Jokic, Murray, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.

I played the Under 210.5 at -110 odds and would go down to 208.5. I will be on the Under the rest of the series.

I lean Miami in Game 4 and Denver in Games 5 and 6, but will largely bet the Under each of the remaining games.

Pick: Under 210.5 (1u)


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