Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bet in Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets.
Nuggets (-3.5) at Heat: O/U 210.5
Denver won Game 3 in Miami, 109-94, behind Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokić‘s triple-doubles, so all the pressure is on Miami down 2-1.
Both teams shot 31% or worse from three but the difference was the Nuggets hit 51% from the field compared to the Heat’s 37% from the field.
Both squads combined for 46 free-throw attempts and Denver won the rebounding margin, 58-33. The Nuggets pretty much ran away with the game in the second-half but controlled the game from the second quarter on.
I expect this series to remain low-scoring and a defensive battle. Denver has averaged 107.0 points per game in this series and Miami’s averaged 99.3 points. However, Denver is shooting 51.3% from the field versus Miami who is hitting 41.7% in the Finals, plus averaging about 10 more free-throw attempts per game.
Guys like Kevin Love, Max Strus and Caleb Martin are all shooting 31% or worse from the field in the Finals for Miami joined by Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope from Denver.
The role players aren’t making much noise in this series outside a few stretches by guys like Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson and Aaron Gordon. The series has been all about Jokic, Murray, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
I played the Under 210.5 at -110 odds and would go down to 208.5. I will be on the Under the rest of the series.
I lean Miami in Game 4 and Denver in Games 5 and 6, but will largely bet the Under each of the remaining games.
Pick: Under 210.5 (1u)
DON’T FORGET TO CHECK OUT OUR BETTING TOOLS:
Live Odds: NFL | NBA | MLB | CFB | CBB | NHL Player Props: NFL | NBA | MLB | CFB| CBB | NHL
Top Trends: NFL | NBA | MLB | CFB | CBB | NHL Predictions: NFL | NBA | MLB | CFB | CBB | NHL
