Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bets in the NBA Finals Game 5 elimination contest between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat.
Heat at Nuggets (-9): O/U 208.5
I am going to run it back on the total in Game 5 after Game 1 opened at 219.5 and we have seen a 11.0-point dip to 208.5 for Game 5.
That speaks to the pace and inefficiency of these offenses in the NBA Finals. Denver averages 107.3 points per game and Miami averages 98.3 points per game, so Under this 208.5 total.
Three out of the four games in this series has resulted in 203 or fewer points and I expect this one to as well. I doubt there is a Game 6 on the way, but if there is, we should expect a total of 205 or lower if this Under hits.
Miami shot 32% from three (8/25) and managed 95 points in Game 4, while Denver hit 50% of their triples (14/28) for 108 points. Both teams went to the free-throw at least 20 times in Game 4, so the shot attempts have been there but the role players have not shown up for either team offensively.
Michael Porter Jr and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are shooting below 33% for Denver, plus Jeff Green is attempting 1.8 shots per game. For Miami, Caleb Martin and Max Strus are shooting 35% or lower, plus Kevin Love, Gabe Vincent and Kyle Lowry have shot under 50% from the field.
Give me the Under 208.5 down to 207 as there is no reason to believe an Over is in order. Denver would have to score 120-plus points, so grab an alternate total on the Nuggets if you like the Over.
I sprinkled the Nuggets ML and Under 208.5 for +135 odds as well.
Pick: Under 208.5 (1u), Nuggets ML and Under 208.5 (0.5u)
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