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76ers at Celtics (-3.5): O/U 214.0
The Boston Celtics are coming off their most dominant season since Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo were in uniform.
However, this offseason has been wild for Boston. The Celtics went out and added Danilo Gallinari, who then tore his ACL in EuroLeague basketball. Gallinari will be out for the season. Celtics Big man Robert Williams also had knee surgery and is expected to miss the first month of the season.
The other key additions for Boston were Malcolm Brogdon and Blake Griffin. While Brogdon will make an immediate impact, Griffin will be a rotational piece until Williams comes back healthy.
Behind Al Horford as the big man are Luke Kornet, Grant Williams and Griffin rotating as the power forward and center. Yikes.
Joel Embiid will go ape**** if Kornet, Griffin and Williams guard him -- at least Horford has the size to defend Embiid, but the other three won’t have a chance at stopping Embiid.
Since the start of the 2019 season, the 76ers are 9-2 ATS (81.8%) and 8-3 on the ML (72.7%) versus the Celtics, per NBC’s Edge Finder. Embiid missed one of those games but Philly won and covered without him.
The 76ers started out 1-7 on the ML versus Boston with Embiid in the lineup, but over the last 10 games are 8-2 ATS (80%) and 7-3 on the ML (70%).
On the road, the 76ers are 3-2 on the ML (60%) and 4-1 ATS (80%) in Boston since 2019.
Outsider of the Celtics Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Brogdon, there isn’t much to like for Boston this early in the season.
I haven’t even mentioned the coaching situation, but Boston’s interim head coach, Joe Mazzulla, will make his first career coaching start on opening night versus a 76ers team that has had the Celtics number in the regular-season as of late.
I don’t have much confidence in the state of Boston and like last year, we could see a slow start before the Celtics pick up play closer to the New Year, or once they get Robert Williams back.
I played the 76ers +3.5 at -115 odds. I also sprinkled the ML at +145 odds for a 0.5 unit.
Pick: 76ers +3.5 (1u), 76ers ML (0.5u)
James Harden O/U 32.5 PRA vs. Celtics
I was surprised to see a line so low for James Harden in his season-opener with the 76ers.
Harden is entering this season a lot healthier than last year and recorded 21.0 points, 10.5 assists and 7.1 rebounds (38.6 PRA) over 32.6 minutes per game in 21 regular-season games with Philly.
In 44 games with the Nets last season, Harden averaged 22.5 points, 10.2 assists and 8.0 rebounds per game (40.7 PRA) over 33.2 minutes per game.
Looking over his last 11 games versus the Celtics, he has gone for at least 33 PRA in 11-straight games, per statmuse. Harden did not face the Celtics as a member of the 76ers yet and historically, Harden has done well in the season-opener.
Looking over his previous four season-openers with the Nets and Rockets, Harden posted 36, 65, 40 and 37 PRA, hitting this number all four times.
Boston will debut new interim head coach Joe Mazzulla and a few new players such as Malcolm Brogdon, Luke Kornet and Sam Hauser. The Celtics will be without Robert Williams and Danilo Gallinari, so the big man depth is lacking, which is a positive for Harden and Joel Embiid.
Harden is a master of getting to the lane and finishing or kicking out to an open teammate. The Celtics play help defense and with some of these guys playing together in the regular-season for the first time without the teams best rebounder and interior defender (Robert Williams), Harden could double-double (-120) or even triple-double (+800).
Harden double-doubled 42 times in 2021-22 and triple-doubled 11 times.
FanDuel and PointsBet has Harden O/U 35.5 PRA compared to DraftKings O/U 32.5 PRA.
Grab the Over 32.5 PRA on DraftKings, if available, or pivot to a Harden double-double for -120 odds. I would pass on the Over 35.5 PRA unless you have both books and can middle (play the Over 32.5 PRA and Under 35.5 PRA).
NBC’s player prop model projects Harden to record 20.5 points, 9.6 assists and 7.2 rebounds for 37.3 PRA over 34 minutes.
Pick: James Harden Over 32.5 PRA (1u)
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