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Joel Embiid O/U 33.5 Points vs. Lakers
Scary line on a consistent player!
Joel Embiid enters this game on an elite and MVP scoring level. Only a few players have had prop lines of 33.5 points or higher in the past two or three regular seasons.
Embiid scored 42 points in his previous game, cashing the O/U 31.5 and 32.5 line tossed at us. Looking over what he has done to the 29.5 number or 30-plus point alternate line, well, he has trashed it.
Embiid scored 30 or more points in 14 of his last 15 games (93.3%) and 16 of 18 (88.8%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Embiid averages 34.5 points per game in January (1st) and 34.7 points per game in his past 15 (1st).
The Lakers Anthony Davis returned in the previous matchup with the Nets to score eight points, record four total assists and rebounds, plus four blocks in 25 minutes. AD will not be healthy enough to stop Embiid on a consistent basis tonight.
Seth Curry (ankle) and Shake Milton (back) remain out, while Danny Green is expected back for Philly. Without Curry in the lineup, Embiid has feasted the past three games, scoring 40, 38 and 42 points.
A matchup with LeBron James or the NBA’s most famous West Coast franchise has always enticed Embiid. Versus the Lakers, he has scored 28, 37, 28, 33 and 46 points in five of his six career meetings, per statmuse.
At home, he dropped 28, 37 and 33 points against the Lakers, per statmuse. Embiid has scored 28 or more points in three of the last four meetings with LeBron (not shown below).
My pick for MVP has attempted at least 20 field goals in six straight games and visited the free-throw line 10 or more times in five of those performances.
The Lakers are a favorable matchup despite AD and company. Los Angeles allows an average of 23.7 free-throw attempts over the past three games (18th) and gave James Harden easy access to the lane with 33 points and nine free-throw attempts in the last outing.
Over January, Los Angeles permits the third-most points in the paint per game (52.5) and own the ninth-worst defensive rating (113.9).
Embiid could feast, especially when Davis is off the floor, although I don’t think Davis will be a substantial difference on Embiid in front of the Philly crowd in what should be a competitive and entertaining matchup.
Honestly, I would play Embiid up to 34.5 points before it loses all value, but he could very well score 40-plus points for the fourth time in five games.
Pick: Joel Embiid Over 33.5 Points (1u)
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