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NBA Player Props, May 7: Why to bet Giannis’ Points Prop vs Celtics

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

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Giannis Antetokounmpo O/U 29.5 Points vs. Celtics

I can’t believe we have to wait until Saturday to see Game 3 between the Celtics and Bucks, but at least we can get a bet in early before the line moves.

I expect Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s point prop to close at 30.5 points, and here is why.

This season, Giannis is 15-2 to the Over 29.5 points (88.2%) when he attempts at least 22 field goal attempts in the regular season, per statmuse. With the playoffs included, Giannis is 16-4 to the Over (80%), which is pictured below.

Two of those Unders have come in the past two games to the Celtics, where he posted 25 and 27 field goal attempts and scored 24 and 28 points.

Giannis

Giannis

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I expect the dosage of 25-plus field goal attempts and 10-plus free throws to continue at home in Game 3 with the series tied 1-1 following a loss. He recorded nine and 11 free-throw attempts in the first two games and should see a friendly whistle at home and an increase in usage.

Giannis has the third-most drives per game in the second round of the postseason (20.0 per game). However, he’s been held to 7-of-18 versus Boston in that department with six free-throw attempts.

I expect Milwaukee to make adjustments to free up Giannis driving to the hoop in Game 3. I also expect Giannis to play aggressive like their season is on the line because we know the winner of Game 3 is likely to win the series.

I grabbed Giannis Over 29.5 points at -118 odds and would play this at 30-plus points or Over 30.5. I would pass once it hits 31.5.

Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 29.5 Points (1.5u)

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