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Giannis Antetokounmpo O/U 11.5 Rebounds vs. 76ers
The Milwaukee Bucks open their season on the road in Philly versus a team looking for a bounce back performance.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off 29.9 points and 11.6 rebounds per game for the Bucks last year, the superstar finished 9th in rebound chances per game (17.9) and a 64.8% rebound chance.
In his last 12 games versus the 76ers, Giannis has grabbed at least 11 rebounds, per statmuse. Now, without Khris Middleton, Giannis’ rebound chances should increase.
In games without Middleton, Giannis recorded 15 or more rebounds in five of the past six games during the 2021-22 season. One of those games came agains the 76ers and Giannis totaled 31 points and 16 rebounds.
Over the last five seasons, the Greek Freak has hit 12-plus rebounds in all five season-openers. Without Middleton, I expect Giannis to be aggressive on both ends of the floor and be involved in rebounding throughout the night.
Jayson Tatum hit 12 rebounds in the season-opener versus the 76ers on 14.0 rebound chances. Blake Griffin, Noah Vonleh and Al Horford all had eight to nine rebound chances versus Philly. The Celtics had to make a group effort on the boards without Robert Williams, but Milwaukee Bucks don’t have to group rebound when Giannis plays.
Our player prop model projects Giannis to record 11.7 rebounds in only 30 minutes of action. I like the chances he goes for a dozen or more boards, so grab Giannis Over 11.5 rebounds at -115 odds out to -130.
This opened at +100 when I played it last night and would play 1 unit at Over 12.5 Rebound for 1 unit or pivot to 14-plus rebounds for +188 to +200 odds and a smaller play.
Pick: Giannis Over 11.5 Rebounds (1.5u)
OTHER NOTES
Kawhi Leonard O/U 22.5 Points vs. Lakers
Kawhi Leonard makes his season debut with the Clippers and of course, it comes against the Lakers in L.A.
Versus LeBron James’ led teams, Kawhi has scored at least 20 points in 11-straight regular-season meetings dating back to 2015, per statmuse. Leonard scored 23 or more points in 10 of those 11 games (90.9%).
Leonard scored 26 points in the 2020-21 season-opener versus the Lakers over 34 minutes, had 30 points in 2019-20’s opener against L.A. and 24 points against the Cavaliers to start 2018-19.
Leonard hasn’t played since the 2020-21 NBA playoff series versus the Jazz, which means a minutes restriction is likely for the opener. Rumor has it Leonard is in much better shape and added more muscle, but the Clippers will likely be cautious with a long season ahead.
Leonard averaged 27.3 points per game in the playoff series versus Utah on 23, 21, 34 and 31 points in that order.
Stephen Curry had 33 points in 33 minutes versus the Lakers and Andrew Wiggins contributed 20 points in 29 minutes. Our model projects Kawhi for 23.2 points in 30 minutes, which I like for tonight, but only playing once we get more information on his minutes.
Clippers (-5.5) vs Lakers: O/U 223.5
Since 2021, the Clippers are 4-0 on the ML and 3-1 ATS (75%) against the Lakers. The Over is 3-1 (75%).
Dating back to 2019, the Clippers are 9-2 on the ML and 9-2 ATS (81.8%) versus the Lakers.
Bucks at 76ers (-4): O/U 225.0
The Bucks are 7-2 on the ML (77.8%) and 6-3 ATS (66.6%) versus the 76ers since the start of the 2019 season.
When Philly is the home team, Milwaukee has won three-straight and four of the past five meetings.
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