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Toronto Raptors O/U 45.5 Wins
The Raptors won 48 games last year but the books hang a lower total, expecting them to decline this season.
I disagree and I actually think Toronto will be just fine. The Raptors return its starting five with Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr., OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam, plus key rotational players Chris Boucher, Precious Achiuwa, Thaddeus Young, Khem Birch and Malachi Flynn.
Toronto also added Otto Porter Jr. (Warriors) and Justin Champagnie (NBA Draft) for depth, so I do think they have one of the better rosters in the East.
Looking at the Nets, Celtics, 76ers, Bucks and Heat -- those are the main five that give the Raptors a run for their money and Brooklyn had the fewest wins of that group at 44.
With Nick Nurse coaching, Toronto always has a chance at making the postseason. The Raptors are -205 odds to make the playoffs and if they are anything like last year’s 24-17 home and road record, the consistency of Toronto should push them over the win total.
I played the Raptors Over 45.5 Wins at -150 odds on DraftKings.
This 47.5 on PointsBet and 46.5 on BetMGM. I would play this to 46.5.
Pick: Toronto Raptors Over 45.5 Wins (Risk 2u)
Detroit Pistons O/U 29.5 Wins
The Detroit Pistons were ATS machines to close out the season.
They were literally an auto bet going 19-2-1 ATS before ending the season 0-3 ATS. While Detroit finished 23-59 on the ML, the Pistons have a lot to look forward to this year and in the near future.
Detroit drafted Jaden Ivey No. 5 to give them another scoring threat in addition to former 2021 No. 1 Cade Cunningham and 2020 No. 17 overall pick Saddiq Bey.
The three scorers are all threats to average 20 points per game this season and the Pistons added Bojan Bogdanović, Jalen Duren, Kevin Knox, Alec Burks and Nerlens Noel to give this squad much improved depth.
While Marvin Bagley will miss time to start the season, Isaiah Stewart could feast and they have enough talent to fill in for a month or two.
With the Pacers on the decline, the Pistons have an opportunity to finish fourth in a tough division with the Bucks, Bulls and Cavaliers. Detroit is -205 odds to finish fourth in the Central Division, which is very positive for this Over.
I bet the Pistons Over 29.5 at -105 odds. I would play Over 30.5 wins too. I also sprinkled the Pistons to be the No. 9 seed (+3000) and No. 10 seed (+1500) in the Eastern Conference because they are my dark horse playoff team in the East.
Cade Cunningham missed 18 games on last season’s 23-59 team and they added plenty of talent to earn more than seven wins and a chance at the postseason.
Pick: Detroit Pistons Over 29.5 Wins (Risk 2u), Detroit Pistons to be No. 9 and No. 10 in East (0.25u each)
Cleveland Cavaliers O/U 48.5 Wins
This is an easy one. There is far too much hype around Cleveland after acquiring Donovan Mitchell from Utah.
Per John Ewing of BetMGM, only five teams have had a win total increase 20-plus years from one season to the next since 2004 and all five of those teams went Under their win total.
Cleveland fits that trend after going from 26.5 to 46.5, which is now 47.5 and 48.5 at some places!
.@cavs win total moved from 26.5 last season to 46.5.
— John Ewing (@johnewing) October 6, 2022
Since 2004, 5 teams win total increased by 20 or more games.
2010 Heat 40 to 64.5
2014 Suns 20.5 to 44
2013 Rockets 31.5 to 54.5
2004 Jazz 25.5 to 46
2021 Knicks 21.5 to 41.5
All went UNDER per data from @SOHistory.
I like Cleveland and they have a very talented roster, but the Cavaliers are still young and in the middle of a competitive Eastern Conference.
The Nets, 76ers, Celtics, Heat, Bucks, Bulls, Raptors and Hawks all clear-cut postseason teams in addition to the Cavs. 48 wins is too much. No need to spend more time on this, especially with that trend from John.
I played the Cavaliers Under 48.5 wins at -110 odds on PointsBet. I would play down to 46.5.
This is asking them to be a top four East team and I don’t see it.
Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers Under 48.5 Wins (2u)
Chicago Bulls O/U 41.5 Wins
I’m not going to spend much time on this because I am a Bulls fan and this is the second-straight year they have disrespected the team and our fan base with this win total.
The Chicago Bulls are better than a .500 team and despite the injury to Lonzo Ball, the Bulls went out an improved this team in the offseason. Chicago added Goran Dragić to assist in replacing Ball, while Andre Drummond and Tony Bradley signed to add depth down low in the paint.
The Bulls will have Ayo Dosunmu, Coby White, Alex Caruso and Goran Dragić in a rotation at the guard positions with two rookies ready to earn their opportunity.
Of course, this team is still all about the three-headed monster, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vučević, but with Patrick Williams getting a full-year under his belt, plus Javonte Green and Derrick Jones Jr. providing experienced minutes, Chicago owns a deeper team than last year.
I can’t believe the books think Chicago would have a losing record this year. Not happening.
I played the Bulls Over 41.5 Wins at -120 odds on BetMGM. I would play this at 42.5.
I also grabbed Chicago to make the postseason at -130 odds.
Pick: Chicago Bulls Over 41.5 Wins (1u), Bulls to make the playoffs (1u)
Houston Rockets O/U 23.5 Wins
The Rockets recorded a 20-62 record last year and tanked as much as they could down the stretch.
So asking this team to win four more games really is not asking for much. Houston has an improved roster built around three first-round picks: Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr. and Jabari Smith.
In addition to the core three, Houston brought back Eric Gordon and Jae’Sean Tate, plus last year’s first-round picks Alperen Şengün and Usman Garuba have a full offseason season after gaining rookie experience under their belts.
Houston also drafted TyTy Washington and Tari Eason this offseason, plus signed Derrick Favors and Willie Cauley-Stein for veteran leadership and bench depth.
While the Rockets appear to be one of the worst teams in the West, we cannot forget about how bad the Spurs and Jazz will be after trading away Dejounte Murray and Donovan Mitchell, plus the Thunder and Kings are still at the bottom of the league working their way up.
Only two teams in the West had fewer than 25 wins last year: The Rockets (20) and Thunder (24).
The Rockets only improved to 20 wins from 17 over the previous season, but I expect an ever bigger jump this year.
I played the Rockets win total Over 23.5 wins at -110 odds and would play this at Over 24.5 wins.
Pick: Houston Rockets Over 23.5 Wins (1u)
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