Vaughn Dalzell shares his best bet for Game 5 in the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets series.
Suns at Nuggets (-5): O/U 228.0
The Suns won two-straight over the Nuggets and with Game 5 in Denver, the Nuggets are in desperation of falling behind in the series unless they win at home.
Denver is an undefeated 5-0 on the ML at home this postseason and won by nine or more points in four of those games. The Nuggets are 1-3 on the road and lost all three by 5, 6 and 7 points, so Denver has been polar opposite on the road compared to at home this postseason.
Denver is ranked top five in both offensive and defensive net rating at home during the playoffs and top six in first half net ratings. Phoenix is one of the worst ranked offenses in the first half of road games during the postseason, so I expect Denver to get out to a quick start.
Considering Denver lost the past two and there’s revenge and max motivation at home, I like Denver here. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker have been insanely efficient over the past two games and that has to slow down at some point. Chris Paul is out for Game 5, so Durant and Booker’s plate remains full.
The Suns’ bench made a difference in Game 4 with guys like Landry Shamet, Terrence Ross and Jock Landale, but that must continue in Game 5 and I cannot bet on that in Denver.
I played the Nuggets’ trifecta spot with the first quarter ML (-140), first half -2.5 (-110) and full game -5 (-110).
I like the home team, which has the model for winning bets during the second round. I expect Denver’s defense to look better, plus the Nuggets’ bench to outplay the Suns’ bench and the Jamal Murray/Nikola Jokić duo to have a stellar performance.
Pick: Nuggets 1Q ML (1u), Nuggets 1H -2.5 (1u), Nuggets -5 (1u)
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