Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s betting Game 6 between the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns.
Nuggets at Suns (-2): O/U 225.5
Denver rolled as expected in Game 5 and now Game 6, we have some tough decisions to make as the Nuggets lead the series 3-2.
However, both games in Phoenix resulted in five and seven point wins for the Suns featuring half-time and full-game leads. The Suns led by two and 15 points at halftime of those contests and with a max desperation spot at home, just like Game 3, I expect Phoenix to lead at halftime and have a good chance of winning contest to force a Game 7.
Denver hit the trifecta in Game 6, cashing the first quarter, first half and full game spreads and winning by 16 points.
Nikola Jokić triple-doubled with 29 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists, while Kevin Durant and Devin Booker finally looked human on a combined 18-of-43 from the field (41.8%) and 54 points.
That was a road game for the Suns’ super duo, but at home, the two have gone bonkers.
Booker scored 36 and 47 points in the two home games versus Denver and averages 38.8 points per game in five postseason games at home.
Durant scored 36 and 39 points in the two home games against Denver and averages 31.6 points per game in five playoff home games.
The Suns’ duo will be too much at least out the gate with the fans rocking in Game 6. I will take the Suns in the 1H against the Nuggets and have strong leans on Booker Over 31.5 Points and Durant Over 30.5 Points with Booker as the preferred choice.
I played the Suns 1H ML at -130 odds and risked 1 unit. I would go out to -165 or pivot the -2. Denver has a -1.8 point differential in the first half of playoff road games and are 1-3 overall in those games with a -4.6 net rating from defense to offense.
Pick: Suns 1H ML (Risk 1u)
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