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A Look Towards the NBA Playoffs: Value Plays

Ja Morant

Ja Morant

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

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The NBA Playoffs tip-off Saturday with more questions than answers following an ultra-competitive regular season. Is Phoenix as good as their dominance throughout the regular season makes them out to be? Are things finally going to click for Brooklyn now that Kyrie Irving is cleared to play home games? Yes, we know the Nets must win a game this week to make the playoffs, but we do expect that to happen. Can Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks continue the roll they have been on the last couple of months? The same question holds for Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics. Let us not forget teams like the Miami Heat and the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks and stars like Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets and Ja Morant of the Memphis Grizzlies.

Before we can even get to the main course, though, we are to be served a tasty appetizer: The Play-In Tournament. This Tuesday-Friday, those teams that finished 7th-10th in each conference will take to the court to determine the 7th and 8th seeds in both the Eastern and Western Conference.

To help prepare you for the NBA postseason, let us take a look at the Futures Market. If you have yet to invest in the NBA Playoffs with PointsBet, this is the time to get involved. This year’s market features plenty of money-making opportunities.

The Frontrunners

Phoenix Suns - Outright Champion (+275) Western Conference Winner (+120)

From Game One to Game 82 of the NBA season, the Phoenix Suns left no doubt that they are the best team in the NBA as we enter the playoffs. The Suns won 64 regular season games - nine more than any other team in the league. The Suns were also a profitable team to bet on ATS. Phoenix was 44-38 (53.6%) against the spread. The Suns are the favorite to win the title at PointsBet with +275 odds. Despite such utter dominance, only a little over 10% of the bets and 16% of the money in the market at PointsBet is backing the Suns to win it all. The reason? Either a lack of belief in the Suns or the lack of value in backing them. For our purposes, recognize the lack of value on them winning the Western Conference. However, betting on the Phoenix Suns to win the NBA Title carries more favorable odds. That is the only bet I would make on the Suns at this point.

Milwaukee Bucks - Outright Champion (+550) Eastern Conference Winner (+250)

Unlike the Suns, the Bucks did not run through the league during the regular season. That is an advantage of being the defending champs. Prior to winning the NBA title last season, the Milwaukee Bucks looked like a team desperate to win at all costs every time they took the court in the regular season. This season, however, the Bucks’ knowledge of what it takes to win it all has allowed them to navigate through the regular season and enter the playoffs healthy and properly rested. They are fully confident they can win back-to-back titles. The odds for Milwaukee to win the Outright Title are at +550 at PointsBet. This is a must bet. In their last 21 games, the Milwaukee Bucks are 15-6 on the Money Line at 13-8 ATS. That tells me they are hitting their stride at the right time.

The Eastern Conference playoffs will be extremely tough. The Bucks have the roster and playoff experience to win the conference and another title. A rematch of last year’s NBA Finals with the Suns and Bucks is a very likely scenario. PointsBet Trading Manager Sam Garriock had this to say about a potential Finals rematch:

“Straight up series prices? We would have it Suns -150 / Bucks +125. That doesn’t reflect our current power ratings -- which have the Suns more in the -200 range. But with the depth of contenders in the East, we would expect to learn more about the strength of the Milwaukee team on their way to the Finals than we would about the strength of Phoenix”.

If that statement holds true you will be able to get a better number on the Bucks to win the East during the Playoffs. As I mentioned, I do like the current number…but that does not mean if a better number presents itself, I will not play the Bucks at that number as well.

Brooklyn Nets - Outright Champion (+650) Eastern Conference (+350)

If this was the NFL playoffs the Brooklyn Nets would be the wildcard team everyone thought would have a chance to win it all. It is not like Brooklyn wanted to be a wildcard team. It just happened that way. Kyrie Irving was a part-time player. Kevin Durant missed a significant amount of time and James Harden had enough of the drama and forced a trade to Philadelphia. With all that being said, there are smart people who think the Nets can right the ship and still win it all. I think those people understand the value of the championship experience Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving bring to the table. Legendary NFL head coach Bill Parcells has said you are what your record says you are. The Nets record says they are a 7th or 8th seed in the East. So, are the Nets lucky to be in the playoffs or should they be one of the favorites? PointsBet is currently reporting close to 30% of the overall handle in the outright market backing the Nets, yet they are +650 to win it all. The Nets should survive the Play-In Tournament. Doubtful their odds grow worse simply because so much of the overall handle is backing the Nets.

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The Contenders

Memphis Grizzlies - Outright Champion (+1600) Western Conference (+750)

If you bet on the Memphis Grizzlies this season you were making easy money. Memphis was the best team ATS in the league and it was not even close. The Grizzlies finished the regular season 51-30 (62.9%) ATS and an even more impressive 56-26 (67%) on the Money Line. The Grizzlies feature a superstar in Ja Morant, but their strength is in their numbers. Sound familiar? That was the battle cry of the Golden State Warriors dynasty. The Grizzlies are one of the deepest teams in the league. Their strength is in Morant and the roster’s depth. If form holds, Memphis and Golden State will meet in the second round. I expect the Grizzlies would take them out in five games or less.

When the season began the Grizzlies were 50:1 to win the Western Conference. When the league went to the All-Star Break the odds had dropped to 10:1. When the month of March began the odds of Memphis winning the West improved for the bettor as the Grizzlies’ odds slipped to 14:1 at PointsBet. The roller coaster ride continued, however. as when March ended, Memphis was 8:1 to win the conference title. I can understand if you think the Grizzlies are too young to win the West. However, if they make the conference finals you have a nice opportunity to hedge that conference wager of +750 on the Memphis Grizzlies.

Boston Celtics - Outright Champion (+900) Eastern Conference Winner (+425)

On January 1, 2022 the Boston Celtics’ overall record was a mediocre 17-19. The Celtics looked like a team headed toward the play-in tournament for the second straight season. Celtics’ players must have made a New Year’s resolution to play better basketball because that is exactly what they did. From January 1st until the end of the season the Celtics were 34-12 (73.9%) straight up. They now look like a team that can win it all. First year head coach Ime Udoka has Boston playing better defense than any other team in the league. Couple that with superstars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and you have a legit title contender. In my opinion the only team in the East that can end the Celtics’ season is the Milwaukee Bucks. The two teams split four regular season meetings. If those two teams meet in the second round of the playoffs, a pre-playoff bet on the Celtics or Bucks to win the East could be hedged if you believe in these teams the way I do.

Dallas Mavericks- Outright Champion (+3000) Western Conference Winner (+1100)

Much like the Boston Celtics the Mavericks were a team that figured things out and got better over the course of the regular season. Their record from January 1st until the end of the season was similarly fantastic to that of the aforementioned Celtics. The Mavs went 37-11. Dallas will enter the playoffs as the 4th seed in the West. They should sweep the Utah Jazz in the 1st round. In round two they will likely go up against the Phoenix Suns. That is scary considering how good Phoenix is, but I would not be so fast to write-off the Mavericks. The Suns swept the season series from the Mavericks but all three of those games were played before the All-Star break. The Suns and Mavericks last played on January 20th. Since that game the Suns have posted a 29-9 record. The Mavericks’ record is 26-10 over that same timespan.

I will definitely be placing a wager on the Mavericks to win the West. Apparently, I am not alone. PointsBet is reporting close to 10% of the bets and 7% of the money in the Western Conference Champion market is backing the Mavericks. Only the Grizzlies, Suns, and Warriors are seeing more action.

The Longshots

Denver Nuggets - Outright Champion (+2500) Western Conference Winner (+1100)

The Denver Nuggets are another team that I would consider a wildcard in this year’s NBA Playoffs. Denver is led by likely league MVP Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets despite not having two of their three best players for the majority of the season still finished 16 games over .500. The Nuggets are hopeful that injured stars Jamaal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. make it back on the court at some point during the playoffs. I do not think the Nuggets need Murrray and Porter Jr. to get out of the first round.

Denver’s first round opponent will likely be the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors got out to a hot start to begin the season but have faded since then. Since January 1st the Warriors are 26-22 (54.1%) straight up. The Nuggets were 32-17 (65.3%) in that time frame. Steph Curry’s health and availability is questionable for the 1st round. If Denver can regain a couple running mates for Jokic, a run to the Western Conference Finals is possible. Personally, I do believe the Nuggets can win the 1st round as long as Jokic plays. I need to see Murray and/or Porter in the lineup, however, to make a play for Denver to make it to the West Final, let alone win it.

Toronto Raptors - Outright Champion (+6600) Eastern Conference Winner (+3000)

The Toronto Raptors entered the season with a projected win total of 35.5 games. They finished the regular season with 48 wins. The Raptors will face the 76ers in the first round of the NBA playoffs. I fully expect Toronto to eliminate the Sixers. As a matter of fact, I think Toronto can beat every team in the East outside of the Bucks. It was not that long ago that Head Coach Nick Nurse led the Raptors to the top of the basketball world. If Toronto is playing in the Eastern Conference Finals it may surprise you, but it will not surprise me. I will put a little pizza money on this longshot.

The NBA Playoffs promise plenty of close games and good sweats. Enjoy both.

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