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It’s Monday, and that means we’ve got a bevvy of NBA basketball to bet on. I’ve picked out a couple of plays I really like, and will waste no more time in getting to them now.
Indiana Pacers vs. Chicago Bulls (-2.5)
I’ll first preface this pick by telling you that this line has fallen in the Pacers’ favor, and I’m going to wait and see if I can grab Bulls -2 or even Bulls ML at -115 or -120 here. I’ll ultimately take Chicago to -3, but this is definitely a spot you want to wait and watch the line.
With that said, I just think the strengths of the Bulls will be so instrumental in this game. The Pacers rely so heavily on Domantas Sabonis scoring in the post and Caris LeVert driving to the hole. The Bulls rank second-best in field goal percentage allowed inside the paint (excluding the restricted area). This interior defense, backed by some big Tony Bradley minutes, is very good.
On the other hand, the Pacers are a middling defense which sit in the bottom half of the league in efficiency. They’ve struggled mightily to slow opposing guards, and that’s going to really sting when they have to face Zach LaVine, Lonzo Ball and Coby White, who looked phenomenal against the Knicks on Sunday.
Chicago makes it 3-0 against the spread on the second night of back-to-backs here.
Edge: Bulls -2.5
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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Sacramento Kings (-2.5) Total: 221.5
I’m going to also add another disclaimer here ahead of this pick. I do not like fading teams coming off coach firings or any sort of hardship like this. In my experience, betting based on this narrative has proven to have no edge, and it may even be more fruitful to back the teams who are dealing with drama.
With that said, the Sixers have done so well over the last few games to look like a real basketball team without Joel Embiid. They now have Matisse Thybulle back, which should work wonders here against Harrison Barnes. Even if Tobias Harris misses the game — and I’d wait to hear his status before betting this one, to avoid getting a bad price — I still like the Sixers to win outright in Sacramento.
These Sixers guards are very good, particularly Tyrese Maxey, and a Kings defense in the bottom five of the league in defensive rating should be no match for them. I am enamored with Philly in this spot, a team which had to face some really good opponents after seeing Embiid get placed on the shelf but which has figured out how to play without him lately.
Edge: 76ers +2.5
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