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It’s an NBA Thursday, and that means we have a shorter five-game slate, but one which features a couple of nationally-televised games. I’m seeing some value in one of the most disappointing teams in basketball and going to be fading a defense that’s struggled of late. Let’s get into best bets.
Atlanta Hawks (+1) vs. Utah Jazz (-1)
The Hawks played some great defense during the course of their playoff run last year, but we’ve only seen a handful of those performances so far this year. With that said, Atlanta has been slowing games down despite that lack of stops with a pace rating in the bottom half of the NBA and one which even dipped down to an extremely-low 95.5 a couple of games ago.
The Hawks’ offense has also looked flat in a loss to Brooklyn on Wednesday, scoring 103.8 points per 100 possessions. Now, they have to host the mighty Jazz in a game which should turn into a real rock fight.
According to our Edge Finder, the Jazz have cashed the Under 16 times in 26 games where Utah flew to the East coast after playing at home, dating back to last season. The Under has also gone 10-5 in games since the start of last year where the Jazz have a rest advantage.
Utah should be able to control this game from a defensive point of view and suffocate the Hawks, who should come out flat after hopping on a plane and flying south to Atlanta. I also expect the Hawks to try to slow the pace of this game, as they’ve attempted to do all season. I also really like Utah here, who will be fully rested. With that said, it’s never fun taking the Jazz away from home.
Edge: Under 220.5; Jazz -115
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Philadelphia 76ers (-6) vs. Detroit Pistons (+6)
The Pistons deserve a little more respect than this. Yes, Cade Cunningham is 0-for-14 from three and carries an ugly plus/minus of -21 into this game, but he’s not going to stay down for very long. On top of that, the two games came against the Magic, who rank sixth in defensive efficiency in the past three games, and the Bucks, who rank third.
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It’s entirely possible Cunningham finally comes to life here against a Sixers team which will be a little weaker on defense without Tobias Harris and Danny Green. Even if he flops again, those two absences should make a huge impact, as should that of Ben Simmons.
The Pistons should have a bit of an easier time scoring the ball, and that would make it easier to see Cunningham, who’s due for a better shooting night, contributing with the insane talent he has.
With that, I think the Over can hit here. The Pistons do rank dead last in offensive efficiency, but the Sixers are missing some pieces on defense. In addition to that, Philly actually increased its pace from 100.42 to 101.63 with Harris off the floor last year, and this year the difference has been roughly two points in pace rating as well.
Detroit has length and talent, which are two things that translate on the offensive end. They just need Cunningham to get going, and I think he’s about ready to.
Edge: Over 209
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