Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets Game 1 betting preview
NBA Odds to Win Series
Utah: +170
Denver: -217
Injuries
Utah: Nuggets: Will Barton F (day-to-day - knee), Gary Harris G (day-to-day - hip)
Denver: Jazz: Mike Conley PG (out - left bubble), Bojan Bogdanovic F (out-wrist), Emmanuel Mudiay G (questionable - knee), Ed Davis C (day-to-day - neck)
Find our latest NBA injury reports for every game.
Betting Trend to Know
In Denver’s last five games versus teams with .600 winning % or better, the Over is a perfect 5-0 O/U. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Nuggets.
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AGAINST THE SPREAD PICK
The Nuggets enter the playoff opener as three-point favorites but spent the majority of their time in the bubble without their starting backcourt. Jamal Murray only got in three-and-a-half games while Gary Harris has missed all eight games and is questionable for Monday’s match. Torrey Craig will start at the two-spot and failed to shoot 38% from the field or better in seven of his eight restart games.
Like the Nuggets, Utah is short-handed in the backcourt, as Mike Conley has left the bubble due to the birth of his child. Conley was beginning to find his form in Utah’s offense and may be replaced by Emmanuel Mudiay, who averaged 14 points in 27 minutes per over his last two games. With Denver and Utah both playing irregular rotations due to the injuries and absences, we like the points on Monday as these teams have played competitively across three tight games this year. Utah is 7-5-1 ATS as 4.5 dogs or less while Denver is 2-6-1 ATS as 3-4.5-point favorites this year.
PREDICTION: Utah +3.5 (+107)
OVER/UNDER PICK
The Under has hit in two of the three matchups this year, but the most recent meeting (Aug 8) needed overtime to go Over as 210 points were scored in regulation with a total of 222.5. Staying with that game, both teams shot near their season average in FG%, but Denver had trouble stopping the Utah three-ball as Donovan Mitchell and the Jazz dropped 22-of-55 from behind the arc. Over their last three games, Denver is allowing over 45% from three, which is the third-worst mark in the bubble. In the three matchups this year, Utah is averaging over 40% from behind the arc.
These teams straddle the NBA’s median in defensive efficiency, but with both having to use some lower bench players in the rotation, communication could be a factor on the defensive end with unfamiliar groupings. Denver games have averaged 241.75 points per game in the bubble, while Utah averaged totals of 229.6 in its eight bubble games. The 217.5 total seems low considering the scoring since the restart, but keep in mind both these teams averaged just 203 points (in regulation) a game in their three matchups.
PREDICTION: Over 217.5 (-104)
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PLAYER PROP PICK
Michael Porter Jr. has enjoyed his time in the bubble, as the forward was named to the All-Bubble Second Team averaging 22/8.6/1.6 in his seven games. The breakout 22-year-old has benefited from all the resting of top players, but the former Tiger has carved himself an important role as a tertiary scorer for this series.
With Will Barton questionable, MPJ could be in line for bigger minutes in Game 1 as he tries to replicate his performance versus the Jazz back on August 8: 23 points, 11 rebounds, and two assists. We are hopping on the points market and avoiding any rebounds as Utah sits in the top-3 in rebounds allowed per game.
PREDICTION: Michael Porter Jr. Over 17.5 points
Jazz vs Nuggets Betting Card
• Utah +3.5 (+107)
• Over 217.5 (-104)
• Michael Porter Jr. Over 17.5 points (-121)
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