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Karl-Anthony Towns O/U 25.5 Points vs. Clippers
I circled this last night and was hoping to get 24.5 or 25.5 points prop and we got it.
The icing on the cake is NBC’s player prop model projects Karl-Anthony Towns to score 30 points tonight, bringing value to this prop.
The model has Towns leading the league in scoring versus the Clippers, which gets me excited for this prop, I don’t know about you.
In 2019-20, Towns met the Clippers three times and scored 22, 32 and 39 points. Last season, he played L.A. twice and scored 16 and 18 points on 25 and 31 minutes. However, that Clippers team is much different than this year’s.
L.A. will be without Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka and Marcus Morris Sr. for this matchup. Ivica Zubac and Isaiah Hartenstein will be the primary defenders on KAT. Good luck.
The Clippers allow 13.3 second-chance points per game (11th-most) and rank 12th with 43.7 points in the paint permitted per game. Towns is dangerous in the paint and can stretch the floor as he is coming off 23 points, 16 rebounds and six assists with four triples against the Magic.
Jusuf Nurkic and Evan Mobley are the best centers that the Clippers have faced through the early season, so expect a big game from the Wolves’ center.
D’Angelo Russell is still out for the Wolves (ankle), so it is Towns and Anthony Edwards leading the charge.
I like KAT’s upside of reaching 30 points and battling Paul George for leading scorer.
I would play this at 26.5 points for 1.5u preferably at +100 to -110.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 25.5 Points (1.5u)
Darius Garland O/U 6.5 Assists vs. Blazers
Over the last three games, the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Darius Garland has 43 potential assists for 14.3 per game but only converted 15 assists (34.8%). He had 10 assists in one of those games alone.
On the entire season, Garland averages 12.8 potential assists per game and 7.5 assists per game (58.6%).
We should see his assist numbers come back to life versus Portland after four and five assists in the last two games.
Garland enters with a positive matchup against a Portland Trail Blazers team that allows the third-most assists per game to point guards (10.67) and third-most to shooting guards (5.61).
Overall, the Blazers allow 28.9 assists per game to opponents, the most in the league, so Garland and Ricky Rubio should feast. Rubio has an O/U of 5.5 assists, a number I like too, but Garland has more potential assists over the last three games.
NBC’s player prop model projects Garland for 8.3 assists, hitting the Over 6.5 assists with a cushion for +110 odds.
Garland averages 7.5 assists per game and recorded three games of seven or more assists out of seven contests.
However, Garland’s two season-highs of 11 and 12 assists -- those two contests came against the Lakers and Grizzlies, the No. 28th and 29th ranked teams.
Garland is taking on the No. 30th ranked team tonight. Back him to find his teammates throughout his matchup versus Portland and hit seven or more assists.
I got this at +110 odds and would play it out to -125 odds.
Pick: Darius Garland Over 6.5 Assists (1u)
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