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NBA Player Props, October 30th: Rudy Gobert O/U 13.5 Rebounds

Rudy Gobert

Rudy Gobert

Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports

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Rudy Gobert O/U 13.5 Rebounds vs. Bulls

I was going to play Rudy Gobert Over 14.5 rebounds against the Rockets, but thought about what a trap that could be. He finished with 14. You’re welcome for not playing it!

Here is a better spot with guaranteed minutes and a more competitive game. The Bulls just lost Patrick Williams for the season, meaning their best defender is out. It sounds crazy, but I am a Bulls fan, and it’s true.

Chicago has not rebounded well, and that will be an Achilles heel of this team (and defense). Here is how the opposing big man has done against the Bulls.

Julius Randle: 13 points, 16 rebounds, 9 assists

Precious Achiuwa: 11 points, 11 rebounds, 2 assists

Isaiah Stewart: 6 points, 12 rebounds, 0 assists

Jonas Valanciunas: 18 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists

Isaiah Stewart: 12 points, 8 rebounds, 0 assists

Over the last three games, Randle, Achiuwa and Stewart all recorded 11 or more rebounds. Saddiq Bey also had 16 boards against the Bulls.

Gobert is a Wendy’s 4-for-4 on the season to Over 13.5 rebounds on the season, per NBC’s player prop model.

He posted 10 and 13 rebounds against the Bulls last season, but has historical success.

Gobert hit rates

Gobert hit rates

In his last eight meetings versus Chicago, Gobert has recorded 10-plus boards in all eight and 13 or more in five games, per statmuse.

The Jazz rank fourth in the NBA with 50.8 rebounds per game, and the Bulls are last at 40.4 -- big mismatch.

Gobert statmuse

Gobert statmuse

Gobert averages 19.8 rebounds chances per game (6th) and 23.0 over the last two games (3rd). He leads the league with 17.8 rebounds per game through four contests.

Back Gobert to dominate the boards, his line should be 14.5 versus the Bulls without Williams.

Pick: Over 13.5 Rebounds (1u)

Taking a look over the model, Gobert leads the charge in projected rebounds but guys like Julius Randle, Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams, Al Horford, and Cole Anthony all light up with excellent value.

I might bet on the Celtics, Rob Williams Over 8.5 rebounds today -- he has 19.0 rebound chances and 27 total boards in the last two games. He faces a tough Wizards team they just lost to, plus Washington has will play its third game in four days. Fatigue could factor into that matchup.

Follow @VmoneySports on Twitter for more picks.



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