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Basketball is back, and the first week of the NBA season gave a glimpse of some of the biggest offseason acquisitions in their new homes, plus some development from rookies and young stars. My picks went 15-3 so far for +16.2 units, including 7-1 on two-unit plays. Let’s look at some of the ATS trends and early results to get a sense of where the profit will be early in the season as the books adjust.
ATS Standings:
Five teams went through the first week of the season unscathed in terms of covering the spread, led by the Charlotte Hornets, Memphis Grizzlies and Chicago Bulls at 3-0 each. Charlotte and Memphis each dropped one game straight up but went 2-0 ATS as underdogs, while the Bulls are the only team in the Eastern Conference with an undefeated record SU. Chicago has been favored in every game so far, so I’m interested to see how they fare when facing a playoff-caliber team. The Utah Jazz also went 2-0 ATS and SU with the second-largest average margin of victory through two games. I bet on the Jazz to finish with the best record in the West this season, so I expect Utah to continue the team’s hot start.
The last undefeated ATS team is the Washington Wizards, which is even more impressive since they played the most recent game without star shooting guard Bradley Beal. The Wizards closed as underdogs in each of their first two outings and join the Hornets and Grizzlies as the only teams undefeated ATS as underdogs. Washington covered the spread by an average of 10.2 points per game so far, the third-best mark in the league. The league-leader in margin over/under the spread is actually the Miami Heat, who went only 1-1 ATS so far but dominated the Bucks as underdogs in the opener to earn a +12.5 ATS margin.
A few teams are still searching for their first cover of the season. I’m not surprised to see the Oklahoma City Thunder and Detroit Pistons at the bottom of the ATS ranks, as both teams were expected to be among the bottom-dwellers of the standings this year. The Thunder have been even worse than expected, with an average margin of -22 points through three games. The Los Angeles Lakers also sit at 0-3 ATS despite picking up their first straight-up win last night against the Grizzlies. I’ve bet against the Lakers ATS in all three games so far and plan to continue fading LA until the roster gets healthy or looks like it is rounding into form.
I’m a big fan of targeting the opposite side against banged-up teams early in the season, so teams like the Denver Nuggets without Jamal Murray, the Los Angeles Clippers without Kawhi Leonard and the Brooklyn Nets without Kyrie Irving are easy targets. These three teams combined for a 1-3 ATS record as favorites so far this season, and I see value against each of those teams again tonight.
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Trends to Watch:
Lower Totals:
One interesting trend early in this regular season is the trend towards lower scoring games. According to Team Rankings, 57.5% of games have gone under so far this season, with nearly one-third of the league not yet participating in a game that went over the total. Basketball Reference shows that the current league-wide average of a 107.1 offensive rating would be the lowest mark since the 2015-16 season, despite this season being played at the highest pace since the 1985-86 season. Better defense led to this decline, as the league average defensive rating dropped from 110.6 points per 100 possessions last season to 107.2 so far this year.
Big Favorites:
Only two games closed with double-digit spreads so far this season. The Jazz blew out the Thunder as -12 favorites on opening night, but the New York Knicks lost outright to the Orlando Magic as -12 home favorites last night. It’s too early to say one way or another what will happen in games with these large spreads, but tonight should provide a larger sample size with three more games listed with double-digit spreads.
Back-to-Backs:
NBA teams playing on back-to-backs went 5-3 ATS to start the season. Teams covered the spread in 52.5% of games with no rest last season, so I’ll be looking to target young teams like the Grizzlies last night on back-to-backs with minimal travel involved. I’m hesitant to take veteran teams expected to make deep playoff runs when playing on back-to-backs, like the Nets in tonight’s game against the Wizards, especially with the increase of load management and resting players. My model projects the value of playing on no rest around 2-3 points against the spread, so this is definitely a trend to watch as the season goes on and injuries start to pile up. When deciding whether to trust a team with a rest disadvantage, it may be helpful to look at the average age of each roster.
Every NBA team's average age on roster 🔥 pic.twitter.com/032cZFWwKm
— Fadeaway World (@FadeawayWorld) October 17, 2021
Fouls:
The offseason brought an emphasis by the NBA against “non-basketball moves”, and the first look at this change shows that players like James Harden that relied on getting to the line last season may see a drop in efficiency. There are still plenty of fouls being called, but Harden only took one free throw in yesterday’s game against the Hornets while being called for multiple offensive fouls. Harden averaged at least nine freebies per game in eight of the last nine seasons, so I’ll be interested to see if the rule change continues to hinder The Beard’s scoring with Kyrie Irving still inactive for the Nets. No team owns a worse ATS margin than Brooklyn so far this season, with an average of -14.2 points against the closing spread according to Team Rankings. According to this chart by Burak Can Koç, free throw attempts and free throws made both saw significant declines through the first week of the season.
Still early but both FTAs and FTMs are in decline this season. https://t.co/IJsq4aY9n9 pic.twitter.com/xrQ5jM16ID
— Burak Can Koc (@burakcankoc) October 25, 2021
Picks for Tonight:
As I mentioned above, I’m fading three veteran teams dealing with injuries in the Nets, Clippers and Nuggets. The Wizards are undervalued in this game and I put one unit on Washington already, with potential for a two or three-unit play depending on Beal’s status and whether or not the Nets rest players on a back-to-back. The Cleveland Cavaliers looked great in a win over Atlanta and Evan Mobley looks to be a star from day 1, so I think the spread of Nuggets -11 is way too high for tonight’s matchup. The Portland Trail Blazers should also be able to keep it close against the Los Angeles Clippers, and I think the Blazers will win outright in this game. My last two-unit play is on the New Orleans Pelicans +5.5, who covered +7 on a back-to-back in the last game at Minnesota. With no rest disadvantage this time, I think this will be a tight game and New Orleans has a chance to win against the Wolves.
EDGE:
*Washington Wizards +8.5 (at least 1U, potentially more pending Beal’s status)
New Orleans Pelicans +6 (2U)
Cleveland Cavaliers +11 (2U)
Portland Trail Blazers +3.5 (2U)