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The NBA continues tonight with a seven-game slate. The first match tipped off at noon, but the rest of the slate will not begin till 7:00 PM ET.
The NBA, much like the rest of the world, is being heavily impacted by the new strain of COVID-19. Woj and Shams are tweeting like it is free agency, constantly reporting new players who have returned positive test results.
From a player prop perspective, sportsbooks provide fewer props until it is closer to tip-off, and injury reports have not always been accurate given how fast information is changing. If there is one silver lining from all of this, it is that we have the opportunities to find high value among non-starters. Their prop markets have not been fully adjusted to their temporary roles, given that many of their teammates are unavailable.
With that said, let’s jump into my favorite NBA prop bets for today’s slate. All odds and player statuses are reflective at the time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Darius Garland Over 2.5 Threes ( -115 DraftKings)
Darius Garland has become the primary offensive catalyst for the Cleveland Cavaliers. The 21-year-old is averaging 19 points per game, and since Collin Sexton went down with a knee injury, Garland’s had a team-high usage rate of 27.2% (via DKNation). However, most notably for today’s prop selection is that Garland has been on fire from downtown. The Vanderbilt product is averaging 2.6 made 3-pointers per game. In his last ten outings, he has knocked down an average of 2.8 attempts from downtown on 45.49% shooting.
Career 3-pointers made after first 140 career games:
— Greg Swartz (@GregSwartzBR) December 15, 2021
Stephen Curry: 286
Darius Garland: 281
Curry was 23.
Garland is 21. pic.twitter.com/OtFpvdpzLy
Additionally, the Cleveland Cavaliers will be up against the Milwaukee Bucks, a matchup where Garland will be able to continue his long-range production. The Bucks are not only going to be without many of their key players, but they give up the most 3-point attempts in the NBA, allowing 41.6 shots from downtown per game.
Darius Garland has hit this prop value in 16 of his 28 games this season (57%) and in six of his last ten appearances.
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Best Bet #2 - David Duke Jr. Over 13.5 Points (-110 DraftKings)
Someone has to score, so why not David Duke Jr.? The Nets have eight players out with COVID-19 at the moment, with team-leading scorer Kevin Durant among them.
Nets star Kevin Durant has entered the league’s Covid protocols. That’s eight Nets now.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) December 18, 2021
David Duke Jr. has played 32+ minutes in the last two games and will be forced to have a high usage rate, as he is currently the only active point guard on the team. In minutes the Providence product has played without Durant this season, he has seen a usage rate of 18.4% (via DKNation). Moreover, the 22-year-old is not afraid to shoot the ball when given a chance. Duke Jr. averaged 14.3 shot attempts in his last year at Providence.
The Brooklyn Nets will be hosting the Orlando Magic, a matchup favoring Duke’s point total even more. The Magic have the worst non-garbage time defensive rating in the NBA via cleaningtheglass.com and are allowing opposing teams to shoot 46.6% from the field.
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