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The NBA continues tonight with a smaller four-game slate, with the first match tipping off at 3:30 PM ET.
We are about a third through the 2021-22 NBA season, meaning we have a solid sample size of how players are performing this season and their respective roles within their team. One way to evaluate a player’s production levels is to analyze their player efficiency rating. The NBA player efficiency rating (PER) created by John Hollinger is often criticized as being flawed due to its inability to account for how a player helps their teams win. However, the beauty of player props is that we do not care who wins the game, we just want players to reach their specific prop value, making PER a valuable tool.
Hollinger himself defines PER as being computed by summing up all of a player’s positive accomplishments and subtracting the negative accomplishments to return a per-minute rating of a player’s performance. An average PER score for an NBA player is 15.
Below are the top ten players with the highest PER up to this point in the season. Statistics from Basketball-Reference.com.
With that said, let’s jump into my favorite NBA prop bets for Sunday’s slate. All odds are reflective at the time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Brandon Ingram Over 4.5 Assists ( -115 PointsBet)
Brandon Ingram is coming off one of the best passing nights of his career. He dished out a career-high 12 assists against the Dallas Mavericks and had just two turnovers. While 12 assists is an outlier for Ingram this season, it is a product of his improved playmaking abilities. The 24-year-old is averaging 4.7 assists this season, and according to NBA’s advanced statistics, that number could be even higher as he averages 8.9 potential assists per game.
Another reason for Ingram’s increasing assist numbers is that he has gained confidence in his teammate’s abilities to make plays and does not force shots when doubled. “The beauty of it is [Ingram’s] trusting the guys on the floor, and they trust him,” said New Orleans head coach Willie Green. “He has times where he’s aggressive. Then if the defense is on him, he’s giving it up” via Nola.com.
Brandon Ingram tonight:
— StatMuse (@statmuse) December 4, 2021
24 PTS
8 REB
12 AST (career-high)
The Pelicans have won 4 of the last 6 games. pic.twitter.com/fURFN5CzPz
The New Orleans Pelicans will be up against the Houston Rockets tonight. The Rockets have given up an average of 29.4 assists in their last five games, which is the second-highest in the league over that period. Moreover, Houston is ranked in the bottom three in assists vs. power forwards this season via fantasypros.com.
Brandon Ingram has exceeded this prop value in just seven of his 18 games this season, but given his recent performance and a favoring matchup against the Rockets, expect him to earn five or more assists tonight.
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Best Bet #2 - Kelly Oubre Jr. Over 20.5 Points (+100 DraftKings)
This is a lot of points for Kelly Oubre Jr. However, he is averaging 23.1 points in his last six outings. Plus, the Charlotte Hornets will be without LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Mason Plumlee, and Jalen McDaniels for tonight’s game against the Atlanta Hawks. Oubre sees his usage rate increase from 21.3% to 24.9% when Rozier and Ball are not on the floor (via numberfire.com), and the Hawks allow the third-most field goal attempts in the NBA, so expect Oubre to get up 15-20 shots easily.
Kelly Oubre’s Last 6 Games:
— Jayhawks In The NBA (@NBA_Jayhawks) December 2, 2021
23.1 PPG (4 made 3’s per game) pic.twitter.com/d40xd8JWl2
Additionally, Oubre is having one of the best shooting seasons of his career and has shown significant improvement in his overall decision-making. The 25-year-old is recording a career-high true shooting rating of 57% and has an effective field goal percentage of 55.6%. He is also recording a slightly above average PER of 15.1.
Kelly Oubre Jr. has hit this number in seven of his 24 games this season. However, our NBC Sports Edge projection model has him projected to drop 28.3 points in his increased role tonight.
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