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With a packed slate of NBA games this Friday, let’s look at some of the lines and see where the value lies out of the 11 games being played today. My picks are 49-28-1 (63.64%) so far this season for +21.44 units. Home court advantage has been virtually nonexistent early in the NBA season despite higher attendance than last season. Home teams have gone 81-91-1 ATS (47.09%) so far this season, and I’m backing four road teams to cover the spread tonight.
New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets rank in the bottom 10 of the league in attendance this season with an average of 15,402 fans per game according to ESPN. Home teams have gone 18-24 ATS and 19-23-0 straight up in games with 15,000 fans or less, so this is a good spot for the Knicks to rebound from their last game which was a home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.
New York has gone 5-1 ATS and SU on the road to start this season and the team’s depth should give the Knicks an edge over the Hornets. New York’s bench lineup of Derrick Rose, Immanuel Quickley, Alec Burks, Obi Toppin and Taj Gibson outscored opponents by 19.9 points per 100 possessions so far this season, the second-best net rating among all NBA lineups with at least 50 minutes played this year.
Charlotte will also be without center P.J. Washington, who is a key member of their frontcourt. The Hornets went only 2-6 straight up in games without Washington last season and 1-4 this year. Charlotte is allowing 40.5 three-point attempts this season, the fourth highest mark in the league, and may struggle to contain a Knicks team that ranks in the top-five of three-pointers attempted per game. No team has allowed fewer opposing points in the paint than the Knicks this season and the Hornets rank in the top half of the league in percentage of points coming from the paint, so I’m confident the Knicks will be able to stop Charlotte’s half-court offense.
EDGE: New York Knicks -1 (1 Unit)
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks have consistently owned one of the best offenses in the league throughout the past half decade, but currently rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating for the first time since 2015-16, when Giannis Antentokoumpo had yet to make his first All Star appearance. Milwaukee has ranked in the top five of the league in effective field goal percentage the last three years but only rank 17th so far this year. The Bucks also have ranked in the top-3 of accuracy at the rim each of the last three years before dropping to 12th this year, and the team is only 20th in halfcourt points per 100 possessions on offense. The reigning champions may struggle to score against the Celtics, especially with Khris Middleton still out tonight.
On the defensive end, the Bucks are without two of their key defenders in Brook Lopez and Dante DiVincenzo. Lopez only played 28 minutes this year so his impressive 16.2 on/off defensive rating differential should be taken with a grain of salt, but the big man is clearly one of the league’s premier rim protectors. Without Lopez, Antetokounmpo is forced to take on a more central role as a rim protector rather than the roamer/help defender role he excelled in during Milwaukee’s playoff run. The superstar forward is more than capable of handling one big man, but the Celtics are a tough matchup for the Bucks without Lopez. In their last outing against the Knicks, Milwaukee’s only active players taller than 6'8 were Giannis and Bobby Portis, and the Bucks had to play 6'6 Thanasis Antentokounmpo for some minutes as a small-ball center.
Boston trots out two big men in the starting lineup and both Al Horford and Robert Williams are capable paint scorers who average at least 2.4 second-chance points per game. Horford is off to a dominant start on the defensive end, improving Boston’s defensive rating by a whopping 12.8 points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor.
The Celtics will be without Jaylen Brown tonight, so I’m expecting a big game from Jayson Tatum. Tatum’s usage increased by 1.2% in 13 games without Brown last year while his scoring average went from 26.4 to 28.6. The Celtics managed to put up a 0.0 net rating with Brown inactive last year, and I think the Celtics will be able to keep the game close again tonight.
EDGE: Boston Celtics +2 (1 Unit)
Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets
The Atlanta Hawks stumbled to open the season with a 3-9 ATS record and 4-8 record straight up. The reigning Eastern Conference finalists are still rounding into form as the team persevered through injuries and adjustments to the new foul rules. The Denver Nuggets might be even more banged up with Jamal Murray still out and now joined on the sidelines by Michael Porter Jr. who is nursing a back injury. The Nuggets won and covered against difficult competition over the last two games including their last game without reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, but the Hawks should be the healthier side in this game if Bogdan Bogdanovic or De’Andre Hunter can play. I’ll be watching the injury report to see their status as both wings are listed as questionable, but the Hawks are such a deep team that I like Atlanta to cover the spread regardless of those injuries.
Denver has struggled to control the ball without Murray this season. The Nuggets are only 23rd in offensive turnover rate after ranking in the top half of the league during each of the last three seasons. Atlanta’s offense has the third-lowest turnover rate this season and should be able to win the turnover battle in this game. The Nuggets also rank 24th in offensive rating so far this year with 104.1 points per 100 possessions, so I think the Hawks will stay within the number and cover +5.
EDGE: Atlanta Hawks +5 (2 Units)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers
My favorite bet of the night is the Minnesota Timberwolves visiting the Los Angeles Lakers. Last year’s first overall pick Anthony Edwards put up a career high 48 points last game and looks like he’s picking up where he left off with his late-season breakout as a rookie. While there is some frustration around the team after a rough overtime loss two games ago, Karl Anthony Towns should be locked in and I expect him to play well against Anthony Davis.
Davis looked like he was primed to ascend to be a top-five player in the league after his dominant bubble run leading the Lakers to a championship two seasons ago. However, he dealt with injuries last year and is showing some concerning signs early this season. The Lakers score 0.9 points per 100 half-court possessions more with Davis off the court than they do with him on. In addition, He is shooting more but his percentages are down especially when contested.
Of all players who have shot 50 contested catch-and-shoot shots this season, Anthony Davis has the 12th-worst eFG on them. He’s also No.1 in attempts.
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) November 10, 2021
On the defensive end, Davis has allowed the fifth-highest defensive field goal percentage among all players defending at least 12 shots per game. He’s been even worse guarding on the perimeter with the third-highest DFG% allowed on opposing three-pointers among players defending at least five three-point attempts per game. LA’s defensive rating improves by 4.6 points per possession with Davis off the court. That is the worst mark of any Laker so far this season. I thought Davis could be a Defensive Player of the Year contender heading into this season, but he’s as much to blame for the team’s poor start as anyone.
The Lakers have gone only 4-8 ATS to start the season and have especially struggled against Western Conference teams with a 1-8 ATS record. Fading the Lakers this year would yield an 8-4 ATS record for +3.27 units, including a 6-2 ATS record for underdogs.
LA owns a 7-5 record straight up, but has benefitted from a relatively easy schedule and plenty of luck. Data from Cleaning the Glass shows the Lakers tied for the third-highest differential between expected and actual wins so far this year at 1.8. There could be some regression for Los Angeles if LeBron James doesn’t return soon. The Lakers also have struggled to score without LeBron this season as their offensive rating dropped by 7.7 points per 100 possessions without James on the floor.
The Lakers rank only 25th in average spread differential, failing to cover by an average of 4.3 points per game. One of the main issues with the team early in the season is an extremely high foul rate. The LA defense ranks only 28th in opponent free throw rate this season, which would be the franchise’s lowest rank since the 2014-15 when the Lakers went 21-51 and were headlined by Wesley Johnson, Jordan Hill and a 35-year-old Kobe Bryant. The Lakers defense also ranks in the bottom half of the league in half-court points per 100 possessions on both sides of the ball while the Timberwolves own the league’s seventh-best half-court defense so far this season according to Cleaning the Glass. With the Timberwolves as the far healthier team, I’m taking Minnesota to cover +3.5 at the Staples Center tonight.
EDGE: Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 (2 Units)
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