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A big NBA slate on Friday night means there’s plenty of opportunity to find value making picks for tonight’s games. My record took a hit since last Friday with an 11-14 record over the last week but two and three-unit plays went a combined 5-1 in that span, so my picks still added a profit of 3.16 units to the season total of 20.81 units (58-42-1). I like four underdogs on tonight’s slate as I try to build on the recent success betting on dogs. I would definitely avoid blindly betting underdogs, since favorites have gone 128-99-1 ATS so far this season, but I’ve won over half of my underdog bets for just under +24 units.
Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets:
Orlando lost by 33 points at home last week against the Nets, but Wendell Carter Jr. only played 18 minutes and the Nets had Joe Harris active. Brooklyn’s efficiency from beyond the arc drops significantly without the sharpshooter on the court, as the Nets scored only 1.06 points per shot (PPS) on 39% three-point frequency without Harris this year, down from 1.21 PPS and 44% frequency with Harris on the floor. Brooklyn took 6% more mid-range shots with Harris off the court leading to a 0.12 PPS drop in mid-range efficiency.
I still expect the Magic to be among the worst teams in the league this season, but I’ve been pleasantly surprised by the strong play of the starting lineup. The starting unit of Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, Franz Wagner, Mo Bamba and Wendell Carter Jr. put up a +14.1 net rating in 156 minutes to start the season, including a 53.3% rebounding rate that would tie the Jazz for second-highest in the league. Among lineups to play at least 100 minutes together this year, Orlando’s starters put up the second-best net rating, only behind the full-strength 76ers.
Cole Anthony is showing flashes of big improvement early in his second season. Orlando’s net rating improves by 36.9 points per 100 possessions with Anthony on the court, the largest positive differential of any player so far this season according to Cleaning the Glass. As Mark Schindler pointed out in a recent article about Anthony’s scoring impact, his efficiency on pull-up jumpers and shots at the rim has improved significantly since his rookie year. Anthony is now up to third in effective field-goal percentage on pull-up shots among players pulling-up to score at least five points per game, only behind the league’s top-two overall scorers in Kevin Durant and Steph Curry.
The Magic rank in the league’s top five for average second-chance points with 15 per game, while the Nets score the second-fewest second-chance points per outing. Orlando also leads the league in points per possession on put-backs and now faces a Brooklyn defense allowing the third-most opposing points per game from put-back plays according to Synergy Sports.
The Nets rank dead last in the league in offensive rebounding rate as the only team grabbing under 20% of the available offensive boards, while the Magic rank top-10 in offensive rebounding rate at 28.3%.
This was already my favorite pick of the night at +13 before Kevin Durant was ruled out, and I’m confident backing the Magic anywhere above +8 tonight. Brooklyn’s effective field goal percentage drops by 6.6% without Durant on the floor so far this year, and that differential ranks in the 94th percentile according to Cleaning the Glass.
EDGE: Orlando Magic +13 (3 Units)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks:
This season, the Thunder put up a respectable -5.8 net rating with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor, but they wereoutscored by a team-worst 11.9 points per 100 possessions without Gilgeous-Alexander, including a horrific 86.3 offensive rating. OKC’s net rating without Gilgeous-Alexander was an identical -11.9 last season, as the Thunder lost 29 of the team’s final 35 games last year after shutting Gilgeous-Alexander down due to injury. The Thunder’s improvement with the star guard on the floor is even more apparent when examining the results against the spread. Oklahoma City covered in over half of the team’s games the last two years when Gilgeous-Alexander was active (55.56%) but only went 40-46 ATS overall in that span with a 10-22 ATS record without him.
According to data from Second Spectrum on nba.com, OKC leads the league in drives per game with 11.4 more average drives than the second-place Hawks and are the only team to score at least 30 points off drives per game. Gilgeous-Alexander is the NBA’s leading driver with an average 22.4 drives per game.
Milwaukee allowed opponents to score 1.29 points per shot and take 29.1% of field goal attempts at the rim without Brook Lopez active so far this year. Both numbers are significantly higher than the 1.17 points per shot and 23.1% frequency the team allowed with Lopez on the floor last season.
The Bucks have also allowed the third-highest opposing points per possession against opposing isolation plays, and no player put up a higher isolation frequency than SGA so far this year.
Milwaukee’s half-court offense struggled to open the season, and the team ranks in the bottom half of the league in half-court efficiency for the first time since 2015-16, according to Cleaning the Glass. The Bucks have been reliant on scoring in transition, with a top-five transition frequency, but coach Mike Budenholzer may need to adjust the offense for this matchup. The Thunder allow the fewest fastbreak points per game and rank in the top-five for fewest opposing points in the paint allowed per game. The Bucks rank in the bottom-10 of the NBA for average points scored off turnovers with the fourth-fewest points in the paint per game.
EDGE: Oklahoma City Thunder +13 (2 Units)
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Los Angeles Clippers:
The only home team I’m backing tonight is the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans covered in each of the team’s three matchups against the Clippers last season and went 7-2 ATS in the team’s last nine home matchups with the Clippers.
Nicolas Batum missed last night’s loss to the Grizzlies, and he is questionable for tonight’s game as well. In two games without Batum, the Clippers went 0-2 with a -7.6 net rating, allowing opponents to score 118.2 points per 100 possessions. Even with such a small sample size, Batum clearly makes a big impact, and LA’s net rating dropped by 6.3 points per 100 possessions in games without Batum last season to a 119.5 net rating. Batum leads the team in effective field-goal percentage and true shooting so far this year and ranks as the second-most impactful defender on the Clippers according to Kostya Medvedovsky’s Defensive DPM (DARKO Plus-Minus) metric.
The Clippers will also be without key contributors Marcus Morris and Serge Ibaka for this game, while the Pelicans are finally at full health outside of the uncertainty surrounding Zion Williamson. New Orleans started the season just 1-12 but showed signs of improvement since Brandon Ingram returned from injury. The Pelicans went 1-2 over the last three games and rank 15th in net rating (-2.4) over that span after putting up an abysmal -10.7 net rating over the first 13 games of the year.
New Orleans is one of only five Western Conference teams without a five-man lineup that has played at least 100 minutes together so far this year, but the team’s most-used lineup of Devonte’ Graham, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Brandon Ingram, Herbert Jones and Jonas Valanciunas outscored opponents by 11.5 points per 100 possessions in 78.4 minutes to start the season.
Graham was a late addition to the injury report with left foot soreness, but I like the Pelicans regardless of if he plays and would put a second unit on +3.5 if he’s active.
EDGE: New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 (1 Unit)
Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets:
The matchup I’m most excited to watch tonight is the Bulls and Nuggets game, where two of the top contenders in the league will face off. Both teams rank in the top 10 for defensive rating and have championship aspirations this season.
An interesting aspect of this matchup is that both teams are showcasing the value of strong perimeter defense. Neither team has a player considered to be an elite rim protector but each side has a variety of perimeter stoppers to limit opponents from getting good looks. Denver’s drop coverage could struggle to contain the Bulls, since no team scores a higher percentage of points from mid-range than Chicago’s 13.5%.
Chicago’s offense leads the league in points per possession in transition with the highest transition score frequency in the league. Denver allows the lowest score frequency against opposing transition plays, but the team may be fatigued on the second half of a back-to-back. Denver struggles on back-to-backs more than most teams, with a relatively slow roster that averaged the third-slowest speed so far this season according to Second Spectrum. Teams on the second half of back-to-backs went 201-170-5 (54.18%) ATS since the start of last season, but Denver has the third-worst record in that situation (7-9 ATS).
The Nuggets also suffered injuries to key players including Will Barton and Michael Porter Jr., in addition to playing without Jamal Murray all season so far. This placed a heavy burden on Nikola Jokic, although he’s proven to be up to the task. Jokic is listed as questionable for tonight’s game with a wrist injury and even a slight downtick in efficiency or minutes could be all Chicago needs to win this game.
When Jokic sits, Denver’s net rating drops by nearly 30 points per 100 possessions. While everyone recognizes the reigning MVP’s offensive dominance, Jokic is having a career-best season on the defensive end. The difference between Denver’s defensive rating with Jokic on the floor compared to when he’s off is 16.1 points per 100 possessions, which ranks in the 97th percentile according to Cleaning the Glass.
With the injuries Denver is currently dealing with, the Nuggets might have to give more minutes to the bench. That would be helpful for Chicago bettors, since the Nuggets played one or fewer starters for 27.2% of the team’s possessions and were outscored by over 20 points per 100 possessions.
The Bulls rank in the top-10 of effective field-goal percentage and turnover rate on both ends and also rank in the top five for average points off turnovers and fastbreak points. I think Chicago will keep rolling in this matchup and tire out the Nuggets with a swarming defense leading to transition opportunities.
EDGE: Chicago Bulls +4.5 (2 Units)
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