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With COVID concerns decimating rosters league-wide, it’s more important now than ever to be aware of the injury news surrounding the NBA before making any bets on the games. Tonight’s slate features eight games, including two nationally televised contests on ESPN. My picks record is at 60.43% on the season for +50.81 units, including +7.18 units so far in December. There are two games I’m eyeing for value, and I got a PointsBet Sportsbook boost from +142 to +165 on a two-leg parlay of my picks for tonight.
Milwaukee Bucks at New Orleans Pelicans:
The Pelicans have been among the worst teams in the league with a record of just 9-21, but tonight is a good spot for the team to earn its 10th win. New Orleans has put up the worst ATS record in the league entering tonight but earned a victory in the last game with a thrilling heave from Devonte Graham to negate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander‘s game-tying shot just a few seconds prior.
ARE YOU SERIOUS WITH THIS ENDING?!?!
— NBA Fantasy (@NBAFantasy) December 16, 2021
🚨 DEVONTE' GRAHAM FROM THE PARKING LOT! 🚨 pic.twitter.com/nW2qK3GAHc
New Orleans’ struggles are mostly due to injury, as they’ve had solid results when key players share the floor. Jonas Valanciunas, Brandon Ingram and Graham have all been crucial to the team, but one surprise is the strong play of Herb Jones.
Jones, a rookie forward out of Alabama, won SEC Defensive Player of the Year last season and carried over his tenacious defense to the NBA after being drafted with the 35th overall pick. Opponents score 6.6 fewer points per 100 possessions with Jones on the court, the best differential on the team, while shooting at a less efficient clip. Jones still has a long way to go before developing into an efficient offensive player, as he ranks in the 30th percentile of Synergy’s overall offensive points per possession (PPP) metric and shot just 33.3% on low volume from three-point territory, but his defensive impact has been apparent from day one.
When Valanciunas, Ingram and Jones share the floor, opponents only score 103.1 points per 100 possessions and New Orleans put up a +5.8 net rating in 392 minutes. Add Graham to that mix and the defensive rating increases to 104.3, but Graham’s scoring ability ensures that four-man lineup still earned a positive net rating.
This could be a huge game for Valanciunas with most of Milwaukee’s big man rotation set to miss this game. Brook Lopez and Semi Ojeleye have already missed extended time, while the Bucks will also be without Giannis Antentokounmpo, Thanasis Antentokounmpo and Bobby Portis tonight. Milwaukee’s net rating drops by 15.9 without Giannis on the floor, a 95th-percentile differential according to Cleaning the Glass.
Without Thanasis to play small-ball center or Bobby Portis, a strong rebounder who’s improved his three-point stroke and defense so far this year, the Bucks will rely almost exclusively on recent signing DeMarcus Cousins at center. Cousins will have a tough task trying to stop his former team with Jonas Valanciunas in the middle.
Valanciunas is averaging 18.7 points and 12.1 boards per game on 52.2% shooting, including knocking down 46.5% of his 2.4 three-point attempts per game. New Orleans experiences a net rating bump of 12.5 points with Valanciunas on the floor, a 91st-percentile differential, and he makes a big impact on the team’s rebounding performance. Pelicans’ opponents see a 5.9% decline in offensive rebounding rate with Valanciunas on the court, which ranks in the 96th percentile at Cleaning the Glass.
As a team, the biggest strength of New Orleans is rebounding. The Pelicans earned a spot in the top five for rebounding rate on the season and rank third in offensive rebounding rate.
In two games without Giannis and Portis last season, the Bucks only scored 104.9 points per 100 possessions, lower than Milwaukee’s 116.5 offensive rating for the season. This is a perfect spot for the Pelicans, and I think New Orleans will earn the win outright in this game.
EDGE: New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 (3 Units)
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Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings:
My second pick of the night is the Memphis Grizzlies to win against the Sacramento Kings. The Grizzlies are on a hot streak to start December with a 7-1 record (6-2 ATS) so far this month. Each of those eight games came without star point guard Ja Morant, but the team is playing better than ever in his absence.
The defense has been the biggest improvement during this span. Memphis has put up a 97.4 defensive rating in the last eight games, best in the league by nearly five points per 100 possessions. Memphis boasts a deep team capable of weathering injuries, with seven players averaging double-digit points in December. Topping the list is big man Jaren Jackson Jr., the former fourth overall pick from Michigan State who was rewarded with a big extension this offseason. Jackson’s usage rate increased every season of his career to a career-high 23.1% this year, and he improved his defense at both the four and the five positions to give Memphis more lineup versatility.
The return of Dillon Brooks has also helped Memphis get on a roll this season. Brooks is the top perimeter defender on the Grizzlies, and the team’s defensive rating improves by 11.2 points per 100 possessions with Brooks on the floor, a 96th-percentile differential. Memphis also holds opponents to shoot 8.3% worse at the rim and 6.6% worse from beyond the arc with Brooks on the floor, so the Kings could struggle to put up points tonight.
Scoring will be even more challenging with the COVID issues ongoing in Sacramento. The Kings will be without Marvin Bagley, Terence Davis, Richuan Holmes, De’Aaron Fox and Alex Len tonight, with Tyrese Haliburton also listed as questionable. Sacramento has yet to play a single lineup for more than 30 minutes without any of these players, so it will be a big adjustment for interim head coach Alvin Gentry.
Tristian Thompson will take up the majority of the center minutes, and he’s struggled to defend for Sacramento this season. The Kings allow opponents to score 9.6 additional points per 100 possessions with Thompson on the court compared to when he’s on the bench. Sacramento ranks last in opponent rebounding rate from halfcourt offense, and tonight’s matchup could be even worse without depth at center.
The one weak point in Memphis’s defense is beyond the arc, as they allowed the highest accuracy on opponent corner threes, non-corner threes and overall threes. Luckily, Sacramento is far more reliant on the midrange game and could struggle to create open shots without Fox active. I also think there could be some regression coming for Memphis’ three-point defense, since the Grizzlies limit the frequency of corner threes (only 6.6% of opposing possessions, second fewest in the league) compared to above the break triples, with shots from the corner usually far more efficient.
With so much uncertainty around Sacramento in this game, I’m backing the Grizzlies to win on the road and move to 8-1 straight up in December.
EDGE: Memphis Grizzlies ML
PointsBet Sportsbook Parlay: Pelicans +3.5 and Grizzlies Moneyline (Boosted from +142 to +165)
