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Week 10 of NBA action concluded this weekend after an exciting slate of Christmas Day games in spite of the COVID outbreak forcing nearly 200 players into the health and safety protocols since the start of December.
At the moment, I count 200 total NBA players who have entered the league’s H&S protocols this season, with 187 entering in December. (There have been 208 total player entries all season, as a number of players have entered protocols multiple times, w/ 191 of them coming in Dec.)
— Baxter Holmes (@Baxter) December 27, 2021
The NBA recently amended the rules to allow teams to replace players placed in the health and safety protocols with a hardship exception signing that doesn’t count against the luxury tax. Many teams are putting out lineups that are barely recognizable with hardship exception signings comprising much of the active roster for some teams. Previously inactive players such as Joe Johnson and Lance Stephenson also made their returns to the league as replacement players. Not all hardship exception signings are equal, so watching the transactions is an important part of staying on top of the latest news before making NBA picks.
Chicago is one of the teams getting players back from the health and safety protocols, and the Bulls are well positioned to make a run with Brooklyn missing key players due to the protocols. Chicago is only 1.5 games behind the Nets and the teams will face off in January.
The Wizards continued to struggle in December after a hot start to the season. Washington went just 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS in the first 12 games of the month, and Bradley Beal is currently in the health and safety protocols.
The second-least profitable team so far in December is the Milwaukee Bucks, according to the NBC Sports EDGE Finder. I’ve been fading the Bucks without Giannis and will continue to look for opportunities to fade Milwaukee when the reigning Finals MVP is out of the lineup but a comeback win on Christmas Day showed the potential of the reigning champs when healthy. The Bucks put up a +16.45 net rating over 253 minutes with the big three of Antentokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday on the court, including strong showings in eight high or very-high leverage minutes with all three.
The hottest team in the NBA is the Cleveland Cavaliers, and the team’s championship odds went from +50000 to +10000 after a league-best 11-1 ATS record (9-3 SU) in December.
The three Western Conference powerhouses continue to lead the way in the standings with Golden State currently a half-game up on the Suns and 3.5 games above the Jazz. The Warriors earned a critical road win over Phoenix on Christmas Day without key contributors including Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins.
The wings Golden State did have available were able to knock down threes and play strong defense, as Gary Payton II has done all season. The former undrafted player from Oregon State has emerged as one of the top perimeter stoppers in the league this season, with the fourth-best defensive RAPTOR in the league, while serving as a viable three-point threat.
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Russell Westbrook‘s triple-double on Christmas was met with criticism by Lakers fans as he shot just 4-20 from the field. Despite calls to trade Westbrook with the Lakers on a league-worst five game losing skid, Westbrook hasn’t been the problem for the Lakers this season. Russ is shooting a career-low 32% of his shots from the midrange this season, including 0% of his shots from midrange on Christmas, while getting to the rim 48% of the time, which is a career-best and ranks in the 100th percentile per Cleaning the Glass.
The efficiency hasn’t been there yet, but Westbrook’s shot profile is encouraging. The bigger issue for L.A. is the amount of non-shooters the team puts out on the floor each night. Kent Bazemore, DeAndre Jordan, and Rajon Rondo all contribute to drop the Lakers’ offensive rating by over 10 points per 100 possessions with any of the three on the floor. Coach Frank Vogel is trying to fix this with creative lineups featuring LeBron at center, but those lineups have been dominated on the boards through a small sample size.
Kemba Walker also put up a triple-double for the Knicks on Christmas in the team’s victory over the Hawks. While the Knicks still struggle defensively with Kemba on the floor, with a defensive rating 6.0 points per 100 possessions higher, he’s provided some much-needed playmaking and off the dribble scoring for the Knicks as the team endured absences due to protocols and injury.
Derrick Rose’s ankle injury is a particularly big blow for New York, and Kemba will need to step up as a lead guard after being removed from the rotation entirely earlier this season. The Knicks were my most commonly bet team last season but I’m cautious of taking the team without Rose as an offensive catalyst off the bench.
Another team I’m wary of betting on is the Portland Trail Blazers. I expected Portland to be firmly in the race to avoid the play-in by earning a top-6 seed, but the Blazers are in danger of missing the play-in tournament altogether with a 13-19 record that ranks 11th in the Western Conference. To make things worse, Damian Lillard is still recovering from nagging injuries and the Blazers are without C.J. McCollum, Robert Covington and others due to injury or protocols.
Picks:
After a 1-1 day on Sunday, my NBA picks are at 126-82-2 (60.6%) for +55.2 units on the season. My favorite play for tonight’s game is on the Houston Rockets. Houston is facing the Charlotte Hornets and I expect a big game out of Christian Wood. The Hornets allow the highest defensive rating in the league with the NBA’s lowest rebounding rate this season.
Charlotte ranks 27th in defensive efficiency against post-ups and the interior defense could get even worse in this game. The Hornets will be without Cody Martin, the most efficient spot-up shooter on the team according to Synergy, in addition to frontcourt players Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington. Bridges is the favorite for Most Improved Player, while Washington is a versatile big man who defended more post-ups than any other player on Charlotte this year. Bridges and Washington being out will make things even more difficult for the Hornets on defense, so I expect a high-scoring game that should stay within the spread of +7.
EDGE: Houston Rockets +7 (1 Unit)
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