Malcolm Brodgon’s PRA prop against the Denver Nuggets makes the cut as Vaughn Dalzell’s best bet on the NBA slate.
Malcolm Brogdon O/U 26.5 PRA vs. Nuggets
Over the last eight games, Malcolm Brogdon averages 20.0 points, 6.8 assists, and 5.0 rebounds per game for 31.8 PRA, yet his prop line is 26.5.
The Blazers are a +12.5 point road underdog to Denver, so the blowout potential is applied, but we have to look at who Portland has played recently and factor in the Nuggets’ defense against guards.
Portland played Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Chicago, Houston, Oklahoma City, Indiana, Brooklyn, and the L.A. Lakers during that eight-game span. More than half of those teams rank 14th or worse in defensive net rating on the season and half in January.
Denver is 19-4 at home this season with the 13th-best defensive net rating and the 7th-slowest pace, but their defense ranked 6th-best at home in January, hosting mostly quality teams.
Guards like Damian Lillard (26), Jalen Brunson (26), C.J. McCollum (24), and Andrew Nebhard (21) have stayed Under 26.5 line against Denver recently, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (46) was one of the standout Overs.
I like the Nuggets’ chances of slowing down Brogdon as they enter a two-game home-and-home set in Denver. The Nuggets will likely take care of business tonight and allow Portland to hang around on Sunday.
I played Brogdon Under 26.5 PRA at -113 odds on FanDuel. DraftKings has this at -125 to the Under. I’d go down to 25.5.
Pick: Malcolm Brogdon Under 26.5 PRA (1u)
Season Record: 17-13 (56.6%) +3.92u
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