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Bears at Patriots (-8): O/U 40.0
Monday Night Football and we have another dose of the Chicago Bears on Primetime!
The Under is 14-5 in the last 19 MNF games (73.6%) and 4-3 to the Under this season (57.1%).
The Bears average 15.5 points per game, the second-fewest in the NFL. The Patriots have scored 24 or more points in four-straight games, however, the Bears defense is playing better than the Packers, Lions or Browns defenses right now. I could argue against the Ravens too because that fourth-quarter defense doesn’t look good.
While the Bears and Justin Fields have had a few extra days of preparation ahead of this game, so did Russell Wilson and the Broncos. Denver managed 16 points on MNF versus the Chargers and Denver was the road team like Chicago is.
This is New England’s first Primetime game of the season, with four more ahead. I expect Bill Belichick to put the Patriots defense on display against one of the worst offenses in the league.
Mac Jones has four career Primetime starts and they all went Under with three of them by at least 13 points.
Those games were versus Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, Atlanta and Buffalo, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
I don’t expect many points from Chicago and New England shouldn’t need many to win.
The Bears own the 29th-ranked rush defense, permitting 163 yards per game and the 24th yards per attempt (4.8). That could be troublesome versus Rhamondre Stevenson and the time of possession battle.
New England ranks fourth in time of possession (31:27), while Chicago is third-to-last (27:28).
Chicago ranks second on the ground with 170.8 yards per game and seventh at 5.2 yards per carry, so we could see two teams ground-and-pound the rock on Monday Night Football with time rolling off the clock.
New England and Chicago have held four of its six opponents to 20 or fewer points and Chicago scored 20 or fewer points in four out of their six games. It’s Patriots and Bears. That’s an Under game. Don’t overthink it.
I got this at -110 odds on BetMGM.
Pick: Under 40.5 (1u)
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Justin Fields O/U 160.5 Passing Yards vs. Patriots
Justin Fields has been letting it “rip” over the past three games with 190, 208 and 174 passing yards with two touchdowns and one interception.
In his first three games of the season, Fields tossed 121, 70 and 106 passing yards, so it’s a serious improvement, but all good things come to an end.
Versus the Commanders, Vikings and Giants, Fields threw for 174-plus passing yards but now faces a Bill Belichick-led Patriots defense.
New England allowed every quarterback to go over 160 passing yards (like every NFL defense), but Mitchell Trubisky finished with 168 passing yards on 21-of-33 passing (63.6%). That caught my eye because these two have similar numbers for passing yards and weak offensive lines.
Fields has been sacked 5.5 times per game and the Patriots average 2.8 sacks per game (T-7th) and 3.0 at home (T-7th). Per SharpFootballAnalysis, Fields ranks as the lowest-rated red zone passer.
Fields has completed 4-of-11 red zone passes (36.4%) for 27 yards (2.5 Y/A) and two touchdowns to one interception. The Patriots defense ranks top 10 in completion rate (58.6%) and yards per pass attempt (6.7), plus has held opponents to a 44.4% red zone scoring rate in the past three games (T-8th).
Over the last three weeks, Fields has scrambled more than any other quarterback with his recent rise in passing yards and drop backs, so he sets up for a perfect fade on the passing prop.
I played the Under 160.5 passing yards on FanDuel at -113 odds.
I would play this Under 159.5 on DraftKings and BetMGM.
Pick: Justin Fields Under 160.5 Passing Yards (1u)
Random Notes
Former Patriots defensive lineman Richard Seymour will receive his Pro Football Hall of Fame ring at halftime of the Patriots and Bears game on Monday Night Football.
Bill Belichick won his 324th overall game as a head coach last week at Cleveland to tie George Halas for second place all-time among all NFL coaches. He needs one more win to move past Halass, who played, coached and owned the Bears over his lifetime.
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.