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RAMS AT 49ERS (-2.5): O/U 41.5
We saw the Rams beat up on the Cardinals last week just like they normally do, but now, the Rams have to slay their own dragon.
The 49ers have won six-straight regular-season meetings versus the Rams, going 5-1 ATS (83.3%) in that span and covering four-straight entering this matchup.
While the 49ers looked terrible last week against Denver, that was semi-expected from me.
Besides Russell Wilson being 16-4 on the ML and 13-6-1 ATS against the 49ers entering that game, Sunday Night Football was a major letdown spot for the 49ers with all the hype around Jimmy Garoppolo replacing Trey Lance versus the Seahawks and the spread moving four-points.
This is an ideal spot to back the 49ers coming off a loss, going home and facing a team they have owedn. This also isn’t Lance versus the Rams, it’s the quarterback who’s found success against them, Garoppolo.
Garoppolo is 6-0 on the ML and 5-1 ATS (83.3%) versus the Rams in his career. Jimmy G is 2-0 on the ML as a favorite and 3-0 on the ML at home (2-1 ATS) against Los Angeles.
Coming off a loss, Garoppolo is 11-3 on the ML (78.5%) and 9-5 ATS (64.2%). The 49ers have won and covered four-straight off a loss with Jimmy G under center, per NBC’s Edge Finder (shown below).
So now I will buy into the Jimmy G hype, but for one night only.
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The 49ers’ Kyle Shannahan is 7-3 ATS and on the ML (70%) versus the Rams, including three-straight home wins (2-1 ATS), all coming against the Rams’ Sean McVay.
Coming off an ATS and ML win, the Rams are 7-1 on the ML (87.5%) and 4-4 ATS (50%) since acquiring Matthew Stafford.
However, six of those seven wins came as a favorite. The only game where the Rams were an underdog following an ATS and ML win came against the Cardinals, a team they always beat. That’s not the case with the 49ers.
Ride the bang bang 49er train on Monday Night Football to get the win.
I will be playing the 49ers on the ML at -130 and on the spread at -2.5 out to -3.
Pick: 49ers ML (1u), 49ers -2.5 (0.5u)
More NFL Week 4 Picks
Thursday Night Football Pick: Bengals vs Dolphins (read here)
AFC West Showdown Pick: Broncos vs Raiders (read here)
Murray vs Mayfield Pick: Cardinals vs Panthers (read here)
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