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George Kittle O/U 4.5 Receptions vs. Rams
In George Kittle‘s career, he has been consistent in many ways but always against the Rams.
In the last seven meetings with the Rams, Kittle has caught five-plus passes in all of them, per statmuse. This season, he caught five passes on seven targets in each game. He scored three of the last four meetings with the NFC West foe.
Kittle had four receptions on seven targets in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs a few years ago, totaling 36 yards. In the postseason, Kansas City struggled a few times versus tight ends.
Rob Gronkowski (6/7 for 67 yards, 2 TDs) and Dawson Knox (6/8 for 42 yards, 1 TD) had their ways last year, while Pat Freiermuth caught four of five targets this postseason and Knox, just two of four this time around (thanks to Gabriel Davis).
Kittle will be the primary pass-catcher for the 49ers and the best chance at moving the ball outside of the legs/ground game of Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell.
Back Kittle Over 4.5 receptions for -140 odds. I would this up to -150 odds and pass on betting Over 5.5 receptions.
Pick: George Kittle Over 4.5 Receptions (1u)
Odell Beckham Jr. O/U 50.5 Receiving Yards vs. 49ers
This could be the breakout game of Odell Beckham.
The father-to-be has upped his game in the postseason with performances of 54 and 69 yards on 10 receptions and 12 targets (one touchdown). He and Matthew Stafford are forming a connection at the right time.
This will be Beckham’s fourth career playoff game, so three of the four are with Los Angeles. OBJ will be a free agent this summer and should have plenty of suitors after what he has done through these two games, not to mention all the incentives he is hitting for wins and performance bonuses.
Here is a tweet from NFL Reporter Albert Breer breaking down Odell’s incentives.
Details on Rams WR Odell Beckham's 1-year deal, per source.
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) November 13, 2021
• $750K base for rest of the season.
• $500K to sign.
• $500K if Rams win WC or get a bye.
• $750K for divisional round win.
• $750K for NFC title win.
• $500k for playing in SB *or* $1M for winning it.
(1/2)
Beckham is motivated to show out on Sunday, and I like his matchup versus the 49ers. I have picked on this San Fran secondary all season with wide-out props, and I will continue here.
The 49ers secondary has gone through plenty of injuries all season, and while Jimmie Ward, Emmanuel Mosley and Jaquiski Tartt have all played well -- I am worried about Ambry Thomas and Joshua Norman.
Norman was bailed out last week in the cold on three plays against Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers -- although A-Rod did not help with any of the throws. I cannot see that happening in a dome compared to snowy Lambeau Field.
This 49ers secondary will be tested down the field a few times, and I love Odell’s ability to take shorter receptions the distance with his YAC and his connection with Stafford deep.
The Rams star had 36 routes ran last week, the second-most on the entire season, per PlayerProfiler. He had 39 versus the Packers in Week 12. From Weeks 16-18, Beckham had 35 routes ran apiece in all three games. That is encouraging and he should have his fair share of looks.
I played the Over 50.5 Receiving Yards on Wednesday and Friday’s Editions of Bet The Edge.
I would play this out to 55.5 yards for one unit before passing on some lunch money for 75-plus yards or 100-plus yards for bigger payouts.
Pick: Odell Beckham Jr. Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (1u)
Brandon Aiyuk O/U 3.5 Receptions vs. Rams
After speaking with 49ers reporter Josh Schrock on Friday’s episode of Bet The Edge, it was pretty clear he expects Aiyuk to contribute in the passing game.
Our model projects 4.8 receptions on 6.6 targets for Aiyuk, hitting the Over and coming closer to five receptions than four. On the season, Aiyuk is 10-8 (55.5%) to the Under 4.5 receptions but hit the Over three of the last four games (75%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
In Aiyuk’s career, he has met the Rams three times and improved each outing. Aiyuk caught six of seven targets in the previous meeting for 107 yards in Week 18 after three of four for 26 yards in the second meeting. Last season, Aiyuk caught two receptions on three targets for 12 yards and a touchdown in the first-ever meeting with L.A.
While the 49ers will be run-based to start the game, expect both teams to open the offenses once one team finds the end zone and puts pressure on the other. Aiyuk is in a great position to go for four-plus receptions sneakily, plus his routes ran last week will improve drastically here.
Aiyuk ran 20 and 22 routes the past two weeks, thanks to run-heavy approaches with a lead, then the weather at Lambeau. However, Aiyuk ran 33 routes in the Week 18 meeting with a win over Los Angeles, per PlayerProfiler.
I expect Aiyuk to be involved in the game plan and so do the beat writers/reporters for the 49ers.
I played this at -145 odds and would play it out to -155 before passing on this prop overall.
Pick: Brandon Aiyuk Over 3.5 Receptions (1u)
Aaron Donald O/U 4.5 Tackles + Assists vs. 49ers
I was going to roll with a sack for Aaron Donald, but after doing a two-hour Twitter Spaces with a few GOAT’s in the Player Prop community, which is still available to listen to here or click below -- I decided my friend Alex Selesnick aka @PropStarz is right.
In case you missed the Twitter spaces show with myself @PropBetGuy @VmoneySports and appearances from @brianvsthebooks and @MonotoneFootbal ..
— Prop Starz (@PropStarz) January 29, 2022
It was a blast!
Full episode is below .. 👇🏼👇🏼
https://t.co/erPkgyohHF
Donald Over 4.5 tackles and assists is a better play than the sack -- at better odds too.
Donald may finish the game as the best to ever do it. He has at least a half-sack in three of his last four postseason games (75%). He also has great history against San Fran with at least a half-sack in seven of the past 10 meetings (70%), so you can see why I like the sack.
In his last three meetings with the 49ers, Donald recorded 20 combined tackles and 1.0 sack. He recorded games of five, seven and eight combined tackles in his last three outings versus San Fran, hitting the Over every time.
in Donald’s seven career home games versus the 49ers, he totaled at least four tackles in six games and five or more in four of the past five and three straight, per statmuse.
Donald also has at least one sack in four of the last five meetings when San Fran is in town, but at -126 odds, that can be tricky. I am not sure how much Jimmy G will drop back and his time to throw is the seventh-quickest in all of football this season (2.67 seconds), which is not ideal for betting sacks too much.
This prop is -102 on FanDuel to the Over 4.5 tackles and assists, so you’re getting a better number and if he gets a sack, that counts towards this total.
I would play Donald to -125 odds before going with the sack. Although, this is a better sack opportunity below.
Pick: Over 4.5 Tackles + Assists (1u)
Von Miller To Record A Sack vs. 49ers
Below I have a collab on Twitter with a friend of mine when it comes to the Von Miller play. You can read the breakdown there on Twitter on both my page and his page @MontoneFootbal.
#NFL collab @MonotoneFootbal 🏈
— Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) January 28, 2022
Von Miller vs 49ers
Yes to record a sack (+100)
On FanDuel. 1u for me. 0.5u for him.
Write up below and will be live on the site with the rest of my props tonight.@NBCSportsBet #GamblingTwitter#RamsHouse #FTTB pic.twitter.com/XgUtmi3kgo
49ers at Rams: 1st Quarter O/U 9.5 Points
As I mentioned briefly, I expect these teams to have a run-heavy approach in the 1Q and feel each other out.
Speaking to reporters, the feel is the Rams do not want to come out too aggressive and give the 49ers an early turnover to work off, since we know how Matthew Stafford can be (4 TDs, 4 INTs vs SF). For the 49ers, they want to play their brand of football, which is run now and pass later.
The 49ers have beaten the Rams in six straight games and we all know how hard it is to beat a team twice in one season, let alone three times. These teams know each other well and with the O/U on the game, 1H and 1Q dropping across the sports books -- this is my favorite bet of the three.
In the two meetings this season, there were three points in scored in the Week 18 matchup and 14 points in the 1Q, all scored by the Rams.
The first-half scores were 20 and 28, so half or the majority of scoring came in the 2Q of both games.
We go back to last year and there were seven points scored in the 1Q of one meeting and 10 in the second. So in the last four meetings between these squads, the 1Q Under 9.5 hit three times.
During the regular-season, the Rams averaged 4.2 points per game in the 1Q (16th) and the 49ers were 13th with 4.7 ppg.
I played this at -131 odds on PointsBet and would pass on the 8.5 line that some other books are offering. The nine is a key number in case of field goals, a missed extra point or two-point conversions.
Pick: Under 9.5 Points (1u)
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