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Lions at Steelers (-5.5): O/U 40.5
Teams off a Monday Night Football win are undefeated the next week, but what better team to lose than the Pittsburgh Steelers? The Kings of letdown games.
Versus teams with losing records, Mike Tomlin has been about 50-50 as they come.
If you recall my Blitzing the Board spot or Bet The Edge appearances, I talked about him being 12-12-1 ATS and 24-24-2 ATS in his last 25 and 50 against teams with losing records entering the MNF showdown with Chicago.
Pittsburgh has won four-straight games by one possession, leading @VMoneySports to think Detroit (+8) can keep it close this week.
— NBC Sports Bet (@NBCSportsBet) November 12, 2021
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The Steelers did not cover versus the Bears. Now, they get the winless Lions in an ugly game with ugly weather in Pittsburgh (outside).
Detroit is a tough team and despite the weather, they should compete in this matchup. Pittsburgh has won four straight games by eight or fewer points, so a loss is incoming one of the next few weeks, if not here.
Ben Roethlisberger was announced OUT with COVID, meaning Mason Rudolph the starter and Dwyane Haskins the quarterback in waiting. Detroit has to be pumped and thinking the first win of the season is incoming.
With Rudolph as the starter, Pittsburgh is 4-4 ATS and 6-2 on the ML versus teams with a losing record. The Under is 7-1 in those eight games versus sub .500 squads. Detroit qualifies.
Overall, the Steelers are 10-5 ATS, 9-6 on the ML and 10-5 to the Under Rudolph as the starter, per NBC’s Edge Finder (graph below).
I already locked in the +9 prior to my Thursday Bet The Edge appearance and the line moved down to +8, while we were live on YouTube, which is the number I gave out as an official play.
I would play the spread down to +4.5 as the playing field is even without Big Ben. Let’s take a bite of the Under 40.5 for a unit as this could be a 20-14 type of contest. That number is still playable down to 37.5.
Pick: Lions +8 (1u), Under 40.5 (1u)
Tyreek Hill Over 73.5 Yards vs. Raiders
Patrick Mahomes Over 285.5 Passing Yards vs. Raiders
In Tyreek Hill‘s last two games, he received a whopping 29 targets for 16 receptions and 131 yards, plus a touchdown from Patrick Mahomes.
Most of that damage was done on Monday Night Football as Hill was held in check against the Packers last week.
On the season, Hill ranks first in the NFL for unrealized air yards (614), first in air yards (1,137), second in targets (101), third with 17 deep targets and fifth in yards after the catch (249).
He has been treated as a top-five receiver all season and is currently on pace to set a few career highs.
We all know the speed and big-play factor Hill presents, including the Raiders.
In his career, Hill hit 75 or more yards in five of the last seven meetings (71.4%) and 78-plus three of the last four (75%) versus the Raiders, per statmuse.
NBC’s player prop model projects Hill to record with 86.9 yards, hitting the Over. Hill cashed the Over four out of nine times this season (44.4%). I would play Hill up to 77.5 yards on Sunday Night Football.
For Mahomes, well, he has thrown for 281 or more passing yards in five out of six career meetings with the Raiders, including 295 or more in four games, per statmuse.
This season, Mahomes has struggled with 20 touchdowns to an almost career-high 10 interceptions. His high is 12, so he is not far off with plenty of time to go.
However, the Chiefs are 4-0 when Hill gets 74-plus yards this season and if he is going to be a primary target on Sunday Night Football like he has the past two weeks, I like both players to have breakout performances.
The Titans wrecked the Chiefs offensive line and Kansas City should have a game plan in place to get the ball out quick to Hill and company.
Looking over the Raiders opponents this season, it is no wonder why they are atop the league in a plethora of defensive passing categories.
The Raiders have played Daniel Jones, Jalen Hurts, Teddy Bridgewater and Justin Fields over the last four games. most squads’ stats would be inflated as well.
On Sunday Night Football, I expect a shootout between both squads and will back two of the best players from either team to hit their Overs in Las Vegas. I would play Mahomes out to 289.5 passing yards.
Pick: Tyreek Hill Over 73.5 Yards (1u), Patrick Mahomes Over 285.5 Passing Yards (1u)
Patrick Mahomes likes to air it out against Las Vegas.
— NBC Sports Bet (@NBCSportsBet) November 11, 2021
Vaughn Dalzell thinks Kansas City QB will go Over his passing yards prop in Week 10. 📈
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