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NFL Week 18 ATS Pick, Bet: Why you should bet the 49ers +4 vs the Rams

Jimmy Garoppolo

Jimmy Garoppolo

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

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49ers at Rams (-4): O/U 44.5

I will start by saying this bet is based on if Jimmy Garoppolo plays.

I like Trey Lance but prefer not to bet on a rookie to get this 49ers team into the postseason. However, Garppolo is a player I would rather bet on in this spot. Here is the latest on Jimmy G.

Jimmy G Update

Jimmy G Update

San Fransisco won seven of the last 10 games outright at Los Angeles (St. Louis). The 49ers won and covered three of the last four outright as road underdogs against the Rams, per NBC Edge Finder.

The 49ers were +3, +5, +5.5 and +10.5 (failed to cover) in those four games, not in that order.

SF as road dogs L4 at LAR

SF as road dogs L4 at LAR

Kyle Shanahan has owned Sean McVay lately. Shanahan is 6-3 SU and ATS (66.7%) versus McVay, winning five straight. Shanahan is 3-1 ATS and SU (75%) on the road against McVay.

Here are the 49ers seven wins in the past 10 meetings (70%) with five straight victories against the Rams.

San Fran was the underdog in four of the last five meetings.

SF vs LAR L10

SF vs LAR L10

With the 49ers in a must-win spot, this is a favorable team for them to face, believe it or not.

Matthew Stafford has also played subpar over the previous three games. The Rams’ quarterback has tossed six interceptions in three games, five in the past two. His turnovers could prove costly now or in the upcoming week(s).

Los Angeles is on a five-game winning streak but only two of those victories were by more than seven points (Jaguars, Seahawks). They escaped the Vikings and Cardinals by seven points, then the Ravens by one point last week. Only two of Los Angeles’ 12 wins came by three or fewer points this season.

While that is not a great number for San Fran, five of the seven 49ers losses have come by seven or fewer points. They played in single-digit outcomes nine out of 17 times this year, while the Rams have played in seven games decided by nine points or less.

One of the games that were decided by double digits was the 49ers 31-10 win over the Rams.

Back the 49ers +4 down to +3 with its back against the walls to make the postseason, as long as Jimmy G is starting.

Win and you are in, that the 49ers could do.

Pick: 49ers +4 (1u)

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