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Betting on Tom Brady, Justin Jefferson, Jonathan Taylor and T-Lawrence

Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

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Justin Jefferson O/U 97.5 Receiving Yards vs. Lions

The best WR in the NFL, Justin Jefferson, set a career-high 11 receptions the last time he faced Detroit and posted the second-most yards (182) and targets (14).

Jefferson has torched the Lions in his career, per statmuse. He’s recorded at least 124 receiving yards in the past three meetings versus Detroit and caught seven or more passes.

The only Under for Jefferson in four meetings versus Detroit was his first-ever meeting versus the Lions.

Justin Jefferson vs Lions

Justin Jefferson vs Lions

NBC’s player prop model predicts Jefferson to go Over his yardage total with 106 yards on seven receptions and 11 targets.

Jefferson has 23 targets through two games (7th) and a 94.8% snap share (11th) with top five ranks in air yards share (41.7%), receptions (15), and yards (232), per PlayerProfiler.

Another interesting note that bodes well for Jefferson, per SharpFootabllAnaylsis, “Through two weeks, opposing teams have played man coverage just 15% of the time against Minnesota. No team has played more man coverage than the Lions (39.6%) while they have blitzed at the fourth highest rate (38.1%).”

If you wondered how Jefferson has posted 124-plus yards in three-straight versus Detroit, it’s probably because of man coverage.

Only Aaron Rodgers has a higher passing rating versus man coverage from 2019-2021 than Kirk Cousins, so let’s ride Jefferson and the Vikings in a friendly bounce back spot versus the Lions.

I played Jefferson Over 97.5 Receiving Yards at -115 odds and would play this up to 99.5 or the 100+ alternative for +120 or better. This is my favorite player prop of the weekend.

Pick: Justin Jefferson Over 97.5 Receiving Yards (1.5u)

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Jonathan Taylor O/U 83.5 Rushing Yards vs. Chiefs

The Colts are in a major bounce back week after getting shutout versus the Jaguars.

Luckily, WR Michael Pittman is expected back and so is star LB Shaquille “Darius” Leonard, which boosts the chances the Colts stay competitive in this do-or-die game. I say this because this is a must-win at 0-2 on the year.

We all know the chances of making the postseason decrease drastically at 0-3 compared to 0-2, so Taylor should get the ball plenty.

NBC’s player prop model projects Taylor to record 124.6 rushing yards and 1.2 touchdowns along with 25 receiving yards on 2.9 receptions. Taylor is one of the five running backs projected to go Over 100 rushing yards this week.

JT vs CHiefs

JT vs CHiefs

Taylor has 40 carries through two games and has a top five snap share (73%), red zone touches (9), rushing yards (215), breakaway runs (3) and ranks 8th in evaded tackles (14), per PlayerProfiler.

The Chargers’ Austin Ekeler only managed 39 rushing yards on 14 attempts after no Cardinals running back hit more than 30 rushing yards in Week 1 versus the Chiefs. Despite Kansas City’s impressive numbers defending the run, the Cardinals had to abandon the run early and the Chargers had to pass in order to keep up with the Chiefs.

The public will think the Chiefs are going to blow out the Colts but that will not be the case this weekend. Indy will keep this contest close and Taylor will be one of the primary reasons.

Taylor has rushed for 83-plus yards in five-straight home games, six of last seven (85.7%) and and 10 out of 16 since 2021 (62.5%). Taylor also scored in seven-straight home games and 12 out of 16 home games since 2021 (75%).

I played JT Over 83.5 rushing yards at -115 odds and would play this to 89.5. This opened at 82.5.

Pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 83.5 Rushing Yards (1u)

Trevor Lawrence O/U 1.5 Passing TDs vs. Chargers

Trevor Lawrence and the Jags are coming off another impressive win over the Colts, but make the cross-country trip to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers as +7 point underdogs.

In Lawrence’s short career (19 games), the former Clemson QB has never thrown back-to-back games of two-plus touchdowns in the NFL.

Lawrence tossed two tuddies last week versus the Colts, making that his third career game with two or more touchdown passes and second versus Indy. It’s just something about Jags versus Colts.

In two games of what looks like outstanding football from Lawrence, digging a little deeper there are issues.

Per PlayerProfiler, Lawrence has 13 red zone pass attempts (8th) and a 46.2 red zone completion percentage (46.2%).

The second-year quarterback ranks 28th in the league with a 30% completion percentage when pressured and an even worse 28.6% on deep balls (25th).

Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence

Los Angeles’ defense is much improved this year in many ways and the obvious addition of Khalil Mack. With the cross-country travel, I think the Chargers defense can step up early and make life difficult for Lawrence and company.

Both Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr threw for at least two touchdowns against the Chargers this season, but both quarterbacks are familiar with Los Angeles by playing in the AFC West. This is Lawrence’s first meeting versus the Chargers.

The Jaguars faced the Commanders and Colts so far, two of the worst DVOA pass defenses thus far.

We will have to avoid a garbage time touchdown, in my opinion, but I like the chances we see one or fewer touchdown passes at -135 odds on DraftKings.

I like his Under 246.5 passing yards too but the game script could lead to an Over.

I would risk 1 unit once the Under 1.5 Pass TDs goes past -150 odds to win less.

Pick: Trevor Lawrence Under 1.5 Passing TDs (1u)

Tom Brady O/U 23.5 Completions vs. Packers

Packers versus Buccaneers in what could be the final chapter of Tom Brady versus Aaron Rodgers. I can’t wait!

Entering Week 3, the Packers lead the league in pressure rate (42%) and Brady has only faced pressure 20.3% of his drop backs, so I expect Brady to be Mr. Dink-and-Dunk more than ever.

Tampa Bay will be without Mike Evans after he went round 3 with Marshon Lattimore and earned himself a one-game suspension. Chris Godwin and Julio Jones are in question for this matchup, but one or both will likely suit up in attempt to assist Brady and Leonard Fournette.

Brady has the second-fewest time to throw (2.52 seconds), per NFL’s NextGen Stats, so Green Bay will likely bring pressure all afternoon.

The only quarterback with less time to throw was Dallas’ Cooper Rush and he just made his first start in Week 2.

Time to throw

Time to throw

Brady has only played one game without Evans as a Buccaneer and that came In 2021 versus Carolina. Brady recorded 232 passing yards on 18-of-30 in a 32-6 blowout win (29-6 in 3rd quarter). Brady didn’t even need to throw 30 times in that outing, but I expect he will against another tough defense with a low game total of O/U 42.0.

Brady and the Bucs have a chance for a 3-0 start after all of the offseason drama, plus injuries to the offensive line and receivers.

I cannot back Brady Over on his passing yards with the injuries, but the line of 248.5 is too low for an Under.

With a game total of 45.0 or lower in Brady’s time with the Bucs, he’s completed at least 25 passes four of six times and I think versus the Packers is a solid spot to back this prop.

I played Brady Over 23.5 Completions at -135 odds on DaftKings. I would play this at 24.5.

This line will close at 24.5 or 25.5.

Pick: Tom Brady Over 23.5 Completions (1u)

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